CFB Week 5 Saturday picks - September 28

The 2024 college football season heats up in a big way with Week 4, which features a quartet of showdowns between ranked teams on Saturday. Oklahoma State is on the road at Kansas State, Notre Dame is hosting Louisville, Penn State welcomes Illinois to Happy Valley and – in the biggest game of the year to date – Georgia travels to Alabama. Although a 12-team College Football Playoff means the regular season isn’t quite as important as it used to be, this weekend is big. Here are our CFB Week 5 best bets.

Predictions 

Pick #1: Baylor Bears -2.5 over BYU Cougars (-120) 

Pick #2: Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas A&M Aggies Over 51.5 (-115)  

Pick #3: Utah Utes -11 over Arizona Wildcats (-110) 

PICK #1: Baylor -2.5 over BYU (-120) 

Baylor’s late-game collapse against Colorado last weekend was a disaster. Still, the bottom line is that the Buffaloes needed a Hail Mary to force overtime and eventually win. Baylor should have won the game. While their season could go any direction at this point, the smart money is on the Bears picking up the pieces and playing inspired football one week later – perhaps even to save head coach Dave Aranda's job. Baylor’s defense will probably be the best unit on the field in this matchup. It ranks in the top 10 in opponent rushing and passing success rate. 

BYU is coming off a 38-9 drubbing of Kansas State, but the lopsided score can be attributed to being plus-3 in the turnover battle – something that is unlikely to be repeated. The Wildcats actually gained 126 more yards than the Cougars, ran 24 more plays and punted just once. BYU’s offense is a work in progress, so staying within a field goal of Baylor may not be in the cards. 

PICK #2: Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Over 51.5 (-115)  

Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman is expected to be sidelined yet again this weekend, but Marcel Reed has proven to be a more than adequate replacement. Through two starts, Reed has accounted for five total touchdowns without turning the ball over a single time. Combine Reed’s effectiveness with a running game that ranks eighth nationally at 256.0 yards per game and the Aggies are a well-oiled machine on offense. 

Arkansas boasts a dual-threat QB of its own in Taylen Green, who has accounted for eight total TDs this season (four passing, four rushing). The Razorbacks are averaging 40.5 points per game so far. Both offenses should be in line for more success on Saturday, as neither defense is especially stout against the run or in the pass-rushing department. A number of 51.5 really isn’t big enough for this SEC showdown. 

PICK #3: Utah -11 over Arizona (-110) 

Arizona vs. Utah remains a conference matchup, but now it’s in the Big 12 instead of the Pac-12. It’s still a matchup that should favor the Utes, just as it did the last time they played Arizona at home in 2022 (a 45-20 victory). Utah knows how to play its brand of smash-mouth football, especially when it is in front of the home crowd. The Wildcats feature a high-octane offense, but at the same time it is relatively one-dimensional with Noah Fifita force-feeding his favorite receiver Tetairoa McMillan. That can work against less talented defenses, but not against a stout one like Utah’s that should force the ‘Cats to beat the Utes in different ways. 

That is what Kansas State did two weeks ago en route to a 31-7 drubbing of Arizona. You know Utah has watched that film and will implement a similar defensive strategy that focuses on limiting McMillan. As for the Wildcats’ porous defense, they have little chance to stymie the Utes’ offense whether it’s Cam Rising or Isaac Wilson under center. Let’s back Utah to win big.