CFB Week 4 Saturday Best Picks and Predictions

Saturday’s college football slate is stacked with ranked matchups and heated rivalries, but three games in particular stand out for betting value. Noon ET in Salt Lake City brings a Top-25 showdown as No. 19 Texas Tech visits No. 18 Utah in a Big 12 clash of styles. Later, at 3:30 PM ET, Oklahoma hosts Auburn in a marquee SEC battle. And over in Fort Worth, TCU’s Josh Hoover takes aim at an SMU secondary that’s been torched early in the season. Let’s dive into the best bets on the board.

CFB Week 4 Saturday Predictions

Texas Tech vs Utah 1H Under 27.5 (-110) Click Here to Bet

John Mateer Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-115)  Click Here to Bet

Josh Hoover Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+105) Click Here to Bet

PICK #1: Texas Tech vs Utah 1H Under 27.5 (-110)

Utah and Texas Tech feel evenly matched, especially with Utah laying three at home. The Utes want to control the game with a power run scheme and dual-threat QB Devon Dampier, leaning on one of the best offensive lines in the country. Texas Tech thrives on explosive passing plays behind Behren Morton, but this matchup against Utah’s disciplined defense is a tougher test than they’ve seen.

The key battle is Utah’s O-line against Texas Tech’s D-line, one of the most expensive NIL-built units in the Big 12. If the Red Raiders hold their ground, Utah will still try to chew clock, moving the chains methodically. Add in the 10 AM local kick in Salt Lake City, altitude, and two teams that haven’t faced top-tier competition yet, and this game sets up as a cautious, low-scoring start.

PICK #2: John Mateer (Oklahoma) Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has quickly become one of the most entertaining players in the country. Through three games, he’s thrown for 944 yards and five touchdowns, but it’s his legs that consistently tilt the field. He’s rushed 33 times for 161 yards and four scores, extending his streak to nine straight games with a rushing touchdown.

Against Michigan’s strong front seven, Mateer still found lanes, logging 19 carries for 74 yards and two touchdowns. Last week against Temple, he broke off a 51-yard run and finished with 63 yards on just seven attempts. Auburn’s defense is physical, but Oklahoma’s backfield hasn’t produced a steady ground threat, meaning Mateer’s number will be called often in big moments.

With his escapability, knack for explosive runs and heavy usage in high-leverage situations, 49.5 rushing yards feels too low.

PICK #3: Josh Hoover (TCU) Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+105)

TCU quarterback Josh Hoover doesn’t get enough national recognition, but his production speaks for itself. He’s thrown for 621 yards and six touchdowns in just two games this season after tossing 27 scores and setting the TCU record in passing yards a year ago. Hoover had five games with at least three passing touchdowns last season, including last year’s loss to SMU when he put up 396 yards and three scores on 43 attempts.

This year’s SMU defense has been even worse against the pass, ranking dead last in the ACC after three games. Hoover enters with more experience and a deep group of receivers who can exploit mismatches across the field. With TCU projected for around 35 points as a touchdown favorite in a 64.5-point total game, Hoover should account for the bulk of the scoring through the air.

At plus money, the value is too strong to pass up on Hoover tossing at least three touchdowns again versus SMU.