CFB Week 2 Best Picks

CFB Week 2 Best Picks

Texas gets Ohio State at home in a rematch of last year’s 14-7 Buckeyes win, Oklahoma heads to Ann Arbor aiming to sweep the Home-and-Home with a defense I trust far more than Michigan’s offense, and Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker lands in a game script that should force him to throw plenty against Oregon.

College Football Week 2 Predictions

Pick #1: Texas Longhorns -1.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes (-110)

Pick #2: Oklahoma Sooners -5.5 over Michigan Wolverines (-110)

Pick #3: Drew Mestemaker 225+ Passing Yards in Oregon vs Oklahoma State (+110)

PICK #1: Texas -1.5 over Ohio State (-110)

Ohio State has beaten Texas in consecutive seasons, but I am not ready to make it three straight.

Last year’s meeting in Columbus was an ugly, low-scoring game where both offensive lines struggled and neither quarterback ever looked completely comfortable. The difference this time is that Arch Manning and Julian Sayin both enter with a full season of starting experience behind them.

Ohio State’s offensive line is the unit that may determine its ceiling this season, especially with Texas edge rusher Collin Simmons capable of wrecking drives by himself. Sayin has shown elite flashes, but in three starts against Top-10 opponents last season he threw three interceptions and took 10 sacks.

Texas also needs to prove it can sustain offense rather than live entirely on chunk plays. The Longhorns produced explosives in Week 1, but their EPA on non-explosive plays was negative. Ohio State will see that and likely build its defensive plan around eliminating the quick strike, forcing Texas to string together long drives and execute in the red zone.

Cam Coleman already looks like a receiver Manning is willing to trust on contested throws, while Hollywood Smothers gives Texas a true home-run threat in space. Ohio State lost seven defensive starters to the NFL, including five selected within the first 62 picks.

At night in Austin, with revenge in play and a more experienced quarterback, I will lay the short number with Texas.

PICK #2: Oklahoma -5.5 over Michigasn (-110) 

Michigan survived Western Michigan, but the Wolverines should not feel good about how it happened. Bryce Underwood looked shaky, recording five turnover-worthy plays, and Michigan needed a “last-second” miracle just to escape.

Oklahoma already beat Michigan 24-13 last season with John Mateer healthy, and I see a similar type of game developing in Ann Arbor.

The Sooners looked far more functional offensively in their opener. Mateer threw for 225 yards and three touchdowns, the offensive line showed improvement and Oklahoma appears to have more legitimate perimeter help around him.

If Oklahoma can run the ball at all, this becomes an extremely difficult matchup for Michigan. Mateer cannot be asked to carry everything with his arm and legs, but the Sooners may only need to reach the low 20s to cover.

Michigan’s defense is solid, but there is no obvious game-wrecking star who makes me believe it can completely erase Oklahoma’s offense.

On the other side, I have very little confidence in Michigan sustaining drives against one of the best defensive units in the country.

Kyle Whittingham is too good of a coach to dismiss, especially at home, but coaching cannot solve every offensive limitation.

Oklahoma’s defense should dictate the game and create enough short fields for the Sooners to pull away.

PICK #3: Drew Mestemaker 225+ Passing Yards in Oregon vs Oklahoma State (+110)

Oklahoma State looked awful offensively against Tulsa, but Mestemaker still threw 41 passes for 241 yards. Even in one of the Cowboys’ worst possible offensive outcomes, he cleared this number.

Now he is a 22.5-point home underdog against Oregon.

If the Ducks build the type of lead the market expects, Oklahoma State will have no choice but to throw throughout the second half.

Mestemaker also has a strong history of clearing this threshold. He threw for at least 225 yards in 12 of 14 games last season, including every major matchup on the schedule.

Oregon’s defense is excellent, and Oklahoma State losing its starting left tackle for the season is a real concern. But this prop does not require efficiency. Mestemaker can take sacks, throw an interception and still get there through sheer attempts.

Oregon should score enough to push Oklahoma State into chase mode, and that creates the type of environment we want.

At plus money, I am betting Mestemaker’s arm gets plenty of work.