CFB Week 14 Saturday picks - November 30

The final Saturday of the college football regular season is here, and Week 14 brings an action-packed slate with playoff implications, rivalry drama and tight spreads. This week, we’re taking a hard look at three intriguing matchups: Vanderbilt as a double-digit underdog against Tennessee, Kansas State as a live money line dog against Iowa State and a low-scoring showdown between Texas and Texas A&M. Let’s break down each of our college football picks for Saturday.

Predictions

Pick #1: Vanderbilt Commodores +11.5 over Tennessee Volunteers (-108)

Pick #2: Kansas State Wildcats ML over Iowa State Cyclones (+115)

Pick #3: Texas Longhorns vs Texas A&M Aggies Under 49.5 (-105)

Pick #1: Vanderbilt +11.5 over Tennessee (-108)

Vanderbilt has been a gambler’s dream this season, going 8-3 against the spread (ATS), including 7-1 ATS as an underdog. They’ve managed to punch above their weight all season, and in this rivalry matchup against Tennessee, the Commodores are in a prime spot to cover once again.

Tennessee, ranked eighth in the country, comes into this game needing a win to solidify its College Football Playoff hopes. However, the Vols’ inability to dominate weaker teams in SEC play is concerning. They are just 2-5 ATS in conference games and 1-4 ATS as favorites, showing a tendency to play down to their opponents.

Freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has shown flashes of brilliance but struggles with consistency, particularly on the road. The Tennessee offense relies heavily on the run game led by Dylan Sampson, but Vanderbilt’s rush defense, ranked in the top 45 nationally, has proven capable of slowing down opposing ground attacks.

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia is the X-factor. His ability to control the tempo and make plays both through the air and on the ground gives the Commodores a chance to keep this game close. Vanderbilt’s offensive success on early downs, paired with its ability to shorten the game, has made them one of the most reliable underdogs in the SEC.

With Tennessee’s offensive inconsistency and Vanderbilt’s knack for rising to the occasion, taking the Commodores to cover as an 11.5-point underdog feels like a no-brainer.

Pick #2: Kansas State ML over Iowa State (+115)

The Big 12 matchup between Kansas State and Iowa State, known as “Farmageddon,” carries major implications, with both teams eyeing a potential spot in the conference championship game. Kansas State, coming off a dominant 41-15 win over Cincinnati, is peaking at the right time and has the weapons to pull off the upset.

The Wildcats’ offense, led by dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson, thrives on explosive plays and a balanced attack. Johnson’s ability to keep defenses honest with his legs and arm is critical, as Iowa State’s defense has struggled to stop the run, allowing 5.1 yards per carry. Running back DJ Giddens is coming off a monster performance, rushing for 143 yards and two touchdowns last week, and he’ll be pivotal in exploiting Iowa State’s defensive vulnerability.

Iowa State’s offense, led by Rocco Becht, has been serviceable but prone to turnovers. Kansas State’s defense has a knack for capitalizing on mistakes, and in a game where the turnover battle will be key, the Wildcats have a significant edge.

With momentum on their side and an offense built to exploit Iowa State’s weaknesses, Kansas State is a live underdog and a strong play on the money line.

Pick #3: Texas vs Texas A&M Under 49.5 (-105)

The long-awaited renewal of the Lone Star Showdown takes center stage on Saturday night, and the clash between Texas and Texas A&M shapes up as a defensive slugfest.

Both teams come into this game with question marks on offense. For Texas, quarterback Quinn Ewers is still dealing with injuries, and while Steve Sarkisian is an offensive mastermind, the Longhorns’ offensive production has been underwhelming in recent weeks. In their two recent conference road games, Texas has scored just 27 and 20 points, and now they face a tough test in one of the nation’s most hostile environments at Kyle Field.

Each team’s defensive front form the best units on the field in this matchup. The Aggies excel at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, and Ewers has struggled when facing pressure this season, producing no big-time throws and committing four turnover-worthy plays against blitz-heavy teams. A&M’s ability to disrupt Texas’ passing game should help keep this a low-scoring affair.

On the other side, Texas boasts one of the nation’s best defenses, which spells trouble for an Aggies offense that has been inconsistent all year. Injuries along the offensive line and a lackluster run game have hindered A&M’s ability to sustain drives, and points could be hard to come by against a Texas defense that has allowed just 16.6 points per game this season.

With both offenses facing significant challenges and both defenses playing at a high level, the under 49.5 looks good in this high-stakes rivalry.