CFB Week 13 Saturday Best Picks

The Week 13 college football Saturday slate features No. 15 USC vs No. 7 Oregon, with the ESPN College Gameday scene attached, No. 22 Missouri vs No. 8 and No. 11 BYU vs Cincinnati. We have the best bet for each of these games, so let’s break them down.

NCAAF Week 13 Predictions

• USC vs Oregon Under 59.5 Total Points (-110)
• Oklahoma -7 (-120) vs Missouri
• Cincinnati Money Line (+115) vs BYU

PICK #1: USC vs Oregon Under 59.5 Total Points (-110)

Old Pac-12 foes Oregon and USC collide in Eugene as a pair of Top-20 Big Ten teams, and we expect a far less up-and-down game than the oddsmakers seem to suggest. Going over the 59.5 number would imply USC’s offense is dictating the game, but that’s not how this game will play out. 

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava’s completion percentage drops from 74.5% at home to 57.4% on the road, while his interception rate spikes and his yards per attempt fall nearly three full yards. Oregon has allowed the fewest explosive plays all season. Now, Fernando Mendoza and No. 2 Indiana did come into Autzen and light up the Ducks a bit, and USC has some of the best playmakers on the outside that Oregon has seen, but we just don’t trust USC to hit enough big plays through the air to help push this game beyond an already high total. 

Injuries on both sides only add more uncertainty, and with Oregon likely missing top receiver Dakorien Moore, the Ducks are unlikely to succeed in stretching the field vertically. Instead, they should grab an early lead and sit on it by leaning on their downhill run game, which has been dominant at 233.6 rushing yards per contest.

A 31-20 Ducks win aligns with the Under 59.5.

PICK #2: Oklahoma -7 (-120) vs Missouri

Oklahoma owns an elite defense across every measure, ranking 11th nationally in total defense, ninth in scoring defense and fourth against the run. Missouri’s offense is built around a downhill rushing attack that ranks sixth in the FBS in yards per game, but the Tigers have been far less effective against top-tier defensive fronts. Oklahoma already proved it can handle elite rushing teams by beating Michigan 24-13 earlier this season, controlling the line of scrimmage throughout.

Missouri’s passing game remains limited, whether Beau Pribula returns or not, and Oklahoma’s defensive weaknesses have mostly shown up against teams that hit explosive throws. If Missouri finds itself in long-yardage situations, Oklahoma’s top-15 third-down defense should feast. Missouri’s defensive front is formidable, and while Oklahoma’s offense remains inconsistent, its offense is tops in red-zone efficiency (100%), and Missouri’s red zone defense ranks just 64th nationally.

Add in the emotional lift from a massive road win over Alabama last week and the return to a lively home environment with playoff stakes on the line, and Oklahoma holds a clear edge. A 21-10 Sooners win fits both the matchup and the number.

PICK #3: Cincinnati Money Line (+115) vs BYU

Cincinnati opened the season with a narrow loss to Nebraska before rolling to a 7-1 start and climbing to No. 17. Their recent two-game slide coincided with the absence of senior running back Evan Pryor, a key piece in the three-headed rushing attack alongside Tawee Walker and dual-threat quarterback Brendan Sorsby.

BYU carries an excellent statistical resume, ranking in the top-30 in nearly every defensive category and thriving on a dominant third-down defense. However, that strength is most effective against pass-heavy opponents. Run-oriented teams such as Utah have found success grinding out yards and neutralizing BYU’s situational advantage. Cincinnati matches up similarly, and with Sorsby’s ability to create rushing opportunities and extend drives, the Bearcats should be able to stress a BYU defense that has given slack between the 20s this season.

Now, Cincinnati’s defense will have to perform far better than it has in the last two games, especially their rush defense, which was the strength during the seven-game win streak, but the Cougars have flirted with danger all season, and they are due for another road loss. 

BYU has a freshman quarterback walking into a hostile environment for Cincinnati’s final home game. In a physical game with heavy rushing volume on both sides, we like Cincinnati’s more veteran rushing attack to propel the Bearcats to a signature upset.