CFB Week 10 Saturday picks - November 2

Highlighted by a clash between Ohio State and Penn State in a game with serious Big Ten and College Football Playoff implications, Week 10 of the college football season is shaping up to be one for the books. Here’s a breakdown of my best bets for Saturday, November 2, featuring betting insights on Ohio State vs. Penn State, Vanderbilt vs. Auburn and a classic Big Ten showdown between Wisconsin and Iowa.

Predictions

PICK #1: Ohio State Buckeyes -3.5 over Penn State Nittany Lions (-105)

PICK #2: Vanderbilt Commodores +7 over Auburn Tigers (-110)

PICK #3: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Under 41.5 Total Points (-105)

PICK #1: Ohio State -3.5 over Penn State (-105)

Ohio State, ranked #4, narrowly escaped with a 21-17 win over Nebraska last week, falling well short of covering the 25.5-point spread. The Buckeyes’ struggles stem from offensive inconsistencies and injuries, notably left tackle Josh Simmons. Simmons’ absence has exposed weaknesses in the offensive line, impacting Ohio State’s running game and protection for quarterback Will Howard. This challenge looms especially large against Penn State’s formidable pass rush, featuring standout Abdul Carter, who has disrupted backfields all season.

The Buckeyes’ defense has been their bedrock, with a secondary and linebacker corps consistently shutting down explosive plays. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles should have them maintain that form against Penn State’s offense, which relies heavily on tight end Tyler Warren and running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicolas Singleton, by stacking the box and forcing Penn State’s receivers to beat them one-on-one on the outside. The absence of a reliable wide receiver corps for Penn State has been notable, and they’ll likely need a breakout performance to keep pace.

The status of Penn State QB Drew Allar, who left mid-game against Wisconsin, is up in the air. If he’s limited or absent, backup Beau Pribula will have his hands full against Ohio State’s defense. Penn State’s run defense also remains stout, which could further challenge the Buckeyes, who have leaned heavily on running back duo Quinshon Judkins and Treyveon Henderson.

Given Ohio State’s experience and offensive playmakers in Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, the Buckeyes should manage to eke out a win, covering the -3.5 spread. Expect them to leverage Howard’s mobility to open up the offense and keep Penn State’s defense guessing, which could be the edge they need to secure the victory.

PICK #2: Vanderbilt +7 over Auburn (-110)

In an SEC battle between two teams aiming to climb the standings, Vanderbilt meets Auburn as a seven-point underdog. Both teams have had rollercoaster seasons, but Vanderbilt’s gritty, underdog mentality makes them appealing with the points.

Vanderbilt has been resilient against the spread this season, showing a knack for outperforming expectations. Led by quarterback Diego Pavia, they bring a scrappy underdog spirit, having notched an impressive 6-2 performance against the spread thus far, including outright wins against Virginia Tech, Alabama and Kentucky. On the flip side, Auburn’s offense, led by Payton Thorne, has struggled to establish a consistent rhythm, with limited explosiveness that might struggle to exploit Vanderbilt’s weaknesses.

The last three games for Auburn have stayed under the total, with the team unable to break 20 points in two of those games. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, has been impressive against SEC opponents, covering six straight as an underdog with three outright wins. Expect Vanderbilt to keep this one close. While an outright win is a big ask, their track record suggests they can at least keep this within a touchdown.

PICK #3: Wisconsin vs. Iowa Under 41.5 Total Points (-105)

Rivalries are the heart of Big Ten football, and Wisconsin vs. Iowa should provide another hard-hitting, defensive battle. With two of the nation’s top defenses on the field, taking the under at 41.5 points is a system play.

This game features two old-school Big Ten teams built on defense and ground-and-pound strategies. Wisconsin, fresh off a home loss to Penn State, enters seeking to stabilize their offense. QB Braedyn Locke’s performance has been inconsistent, hampered by protection issues and limited playmakers. With Wisconsin’s recent history of struggling against quality defenses, Iowa’s defense can certainly do its part in limiting the Badgers’ offensive production.

For the Iowa offense, the situation is similar. Starting QB Cade McNamara is out due to a concussion, leaving the offense in the hands of Brendan Sullivan, who managed 79 passing yards in their last game. While Iowa has been efficient in the red zone, they rely primarily on a conservative, run-heavy approach led by running back Kaleb Johnson.

Iowa’s defense is always awesome but Wisconsin’s has continued to get better and better throughout this season — Iowa’s ranked 25th and Wisconsin’s 24th. This will likely be a game of field position, with each team attempting to control the tempo through the run game. With both defenses capable of limiting big run plays and the passing games unlikely to open up the field, it’s reasonable to expect few scoring opportunities. In this grind-it-out battle, the Under at 41.5 points is an attractive play for a game where neither team could reach 20 points.