CFB Week 1 picks - August 31
As the college football season continues to roll out its red carpet after Week 0 Saturday, Week 1 offers an exciting slate of games, including some intriguing matchups with betting lines that are hard to ignore. Below, we break down three top picks for this weekend’s action, complete with analysis to guide your betting decisions.
CFB Week 1 Predictions
Virginia Tech -13 (-110) vs. Vanderbilt
#23 USC vs. #13 LSU Over 64.5 Total Points
Colorado -9.5 (-110) vs. North Dakota State
Virginia Tech -13 (-110) vs. Vanderbilt
Virginia Tech and Vanderbilt square off on Saturday, August 31, at noon ET in Nashville at FirstBank Stadium. Virginia Tech, led by head coach Brent Pry, enters the 2024 season with momentum after improving from three wins in 2022 to seven wins in 2023. A significant part of their success is quarterback Kyron Drones, who took over the starting role midway through last season. While his completion rate of 58% leaves room for improvement, Drones was efficient on the scoreboard with 17 passing touchdowns to just three interceptions. He also added 642 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
Virginia Tech returns a wealth of experience, including their entire offensive line, top two rushers, and top four pass catchers. This continuity, combined with Vanderbilt's struggles last year—eight straight losses to close out a 2-10 season – makes the Hokies a strong pick to cover the 13-point spread.
Under head coach Clark Lea, Vanderbilt is still in rebuilding mode, and while they have home-field advantage, it’s hard to see them keeping pace with a Virginia Tech team poised to make a statement in Week 1.
#23 USC vs. #13 LSU Over 64.5 Total Points
This highly anticipated matchup between USC and LSU, set in Las Vegas for Sunday at 7:30 PM ET on ABC, is set to light up the scoreboard. Both teams lost their Heisman-winning quarterbacks to the NFL, but their offenses remain potent. USC’s Lincoln Riley and LSU’s Brian Kelly know to keep their offenses flowing like well-oiled machines, despite significant turnover, and both programs have chosen to trust their mostly unproven quarterbacks – Miller Moss for USC and Garret Nussmeier for LSU – rather than hit the transfer portal.
Moss is coming off a six-touchdown performance in USC’s bowl win over Louisville, while Nussmeier led LSU to a bowl victory, throwing three touchdowns against a complex Wisconsin defense. Both quarterbacks have plenty of talent around them, including USC’s explosive playmaker Zachariah Branch. Despite the departure of star players, these offenses are built to score.
With defenses that struggled last season, particularly creating pressure and covering in the secondary, the Over 64.5 total points (-110) seem attainable.
Colorado -9.5 (-110) vs. North Dakota State
The Colorado Buffaloes open their season as 9.5-point favorites against North Dakota State, and despite the Bison’s storied reputation, this line reflects the upgrades Colorado has made. Head coach Deion Sanders has aggressively addressed the Buffaloes’ weaknesses, particularly in the trenches, by bringing in talent through the transfer portal. Adding five-star freshman tackle Jordan Seaton and a revamped offensive line should give quarterback Shedeur Sanders more protection he sorely needs.
Sanders had a stellar 2023 season, throwing for 27 touchdowns against just three interceptions despite facing constant pressure. With improved protection and a bevy of playmakers like Travis Hunter and Ohio State transfer Dallan Hayden, Colorado’s offense could be too much for North Dakota State’s defense to handle in the open field, which was the Bison’s glaring weakness a season ago. While the Bison are known for their physicality and discipline, being in their first game under new head coach Tim Polasek gives pause, especially when dealing with Colorado’s speed and talent.
The NDSU QB tandem of Cam Miller and Coly Payton is threatening, but Colorado will be fired up to discard the haters and pull away late in the game, covering the spread.
