CFB Playoff First Round picks

The College Football Playoff begins with an exciting slate of four matchups, each of which is hosted by the higher seed. This article features spread plays for Indiana-Notre Dame and Tennessee-Ohio State and an over/under pick for Clemson-Texas.

Here are the three bets to consider as we dive into and break down the first round of action.

College Football Playoffs First Round Predictions

#7 Notre Dame -7 (-115) #10 Indiana 

#12 Clemson vs. #5 Texas Under 52 Total points (-112)

#9 Tennessee +7.5 (-115) vs #8 Ohio State (-115)

PICK #1: #7 Notre Dame -7 (-115) vs. #10 Indiana

Notre Dame returns to the College Football Playoff after a brief hiatus, hosting Indiana, a first-time participant, in snowy South Bend. Indiana boasts an elite offense, statistically, ranking second nationally in points per drive (3.57) and offensive success rate (51.7%). However, their production fell off dramatically against elite defenses, like Michigan and Ohio State, where their offensive success rate dropped to 39.8%, and their points per drive plummeted to 1.52.

Notre Dame’s defense mirrors the physicality and secondary strength of Michigan and Ohio State, making it likely that Indiana’s offense will struggle again. Additionally, the Irish’s three-headed rushing attack led by QB Riley Leonard, RB Jeremiyah Love and RB Jadarian Price will test Indiana’s linebackers. The Hoosiers defense must sell out against the run, forcing Leonard to win through the air. While Notre Dame's passing game isn’t prolific, it’s still among the best Indiana has faced this season.

Ultimately, Notre Dame’s balance of offense and a dominant and disciplined defense give them the edge. Indiana’s inability to generate explosive plays and consistently move the ball against top-tier opponents suggests the Irish cover the seven-point spread at home in potentially snowy conditions.

PICK #2: #12 Clemson vs. #5 Texas Under 52 Total Points (-112)

This first-round clash pits Clemson against Texas in Austin, with both teams entering with significant offensive question marks. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is playing through oblique and ankle injuries, limiting his arm strength and mobility. Meanwhile, the Clemson offense has struggled against SEC-caliber defenses, managing just 3 points against Georgia and 14 against South Carolina earlier this season.

The Texas defense has been the backbone of their success, ranking second nationally in scoring defense and first against the pass. Clemson’s QB Cade Klubnik, who has improved throughout the season, faces one of his toughest challenges this season against a Longhorns secondary that thrives in limiting big plays. Add to that Clemson’s struggles in the ground game, particularly with injuries to key backs like Phil Mafah, and the Tigers are unlikely to find consistent success on offense.

Both teams also have red zone inefficiencies, and injuries to Texas’ top receiver Isaiah Bond further dampen the Longhorns’ ability to stretch the field. With defenses dictating the pace and both offenses prone to extended scoring droughts, this game projects to be a grind-it-out battle. A final score in the 23-13 range feels realistic, keeping the total comfortably under 52 points.

PICK #3: #9 Tennessee +7.5 (-115) vs. #8 Ohio State

Ohio State enters Saturday’s matchup with Tennessee after a deflating 13-10 loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes offense has been inconsistent all season, particularly against top defenses. Injuries to their offensive line have hindered their ability to protect QB Will Howard and create running lanes, making this matchup against Tennessee’s dominant defensive front particularly daunting.

Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava has been red-hot in recent weeks, throwing 11 touchdowns to just 1 interception in his last five games. The Volunteers’ run game, led by RB Dylan Sampson, is their true strength. Sampson’s 1,485 yards and 22 touchdowns will test a Buckeyes defense that struggled to contain Michigan’s rushing attack in their last outing.

Defensively, Tennessee ranks first nationally in EPA per rush and fourth per dropback, thanks to their relentless pass rush led by DE James Pearce Jr. With Ohio State’s banged-up offensive line, Tennessee should generate enough pressure to keep this game close.

While Ohio State’s defense remains formidable, their offensive struggles and Tennessee’s ability to control the clock with the run game make the Volunteers a solid bet to cover the +7.5 spread. Expect a low-scoring, physical battle that comes down to the wire.