CFB Championship Week Saturday Best Picks

Championship Saturday delivers wall-to-wall glory for college football enthusiasts. Texas Tech and BYU meet again at AT&T Stadium, where the rematch will determine a Big 12 champion and carries weighty College Football Playoff implications. The afternoon window features the nation’s top two teams, as Indiana and Ohio State meet in a Big Ten Championship game inside Lucas Oil Stadium. And in Atlanta, Alabama and Georgia renew their familiar SEC rivalry with CFP stakes.

CFB Championship Week Predictions

Pick #1: Bear Bachmeier Under 34.5 Rushing Yards in BYU Cougars vs Texas Tech Red Raiders (-115) Click Here to Bet

Pick #2: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Under 48 (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #3: Alabama Crimson Tide ML over Georgia Bulldogs (+120) Click Here to Bet

Pick #1: Bear Bachmeier Under 34.5 Rushing Yards in BYU vs Texas Tech (-115) Click Here to Bet

Texas Tech’s front is built to eliminate the escape lanes BYU Freshman QB Bear Bachmeier depends on when the first read doesn’t materialize. Because college football counts sacks as rushing attempts, Tech’s ability to compress pockets becomes even more crippling for a quarterback with a higher-than-average scramble rate.

In the first meeting between these teams, Bachmeier carried 11 times and finished with only 12 rushing yards, and that came in a game in which Texas Tech recorded just one sack. Even when Bachmeier found daylight early, dependable pursuit and tackling erased production almost immediately, and in some cases, created negative plays. Tech only allows 68.9 rushing yards per game and ranks first nationally in EPA per rush allowed.

BYU’s run-first identity often helps Bachmeier’s legs through zone-read wrinkles, but the Cougars’ offensive line struggled to create displacement in Lubbock and showed no sustained answer for Tech’s interior blast. Indoors on a neutral field, the conditions favor Texas Tech’s athleticism even more. Bachmeier can be dangerous in space when plays break down, but this is the one opponent on the schedule that consistently closes those gaps. With sacks likely to play a larger role in the rematch, staying under 34.5 rushing yards remains the play.

Pick #2: Indiana vs. Ohio State Under 48 (-110) Click Here to Bet

While both teams are elite offensively, the matchup profile tilts toward a more constricted championship rhythm. Ohio State remains the nation’s most efficient defense, holding opponents to single-digit scoring in nearly every outing and smothering passing games with a secondary that allows just 121 yards per contest. Indiana’s defense has been undervalued all season, ranking inside the top five nationally in scoring, total defense and rushing defense.

On offense, Ohio State runs the slowest pace in the country at 31.8 seconds per snap, while Indiana isn’t far behind at 29.4. With both teams capable of winning at the line of scrimmage and both quarterbacks playing mistake-free football, possessions naturally become long and low-variant. Both defenses also rank top-five in third-down situations. When teams sustain drives but rarely generate explosive plays, totals in this range become inflated.

Ohio State’s recent offensive approach has also leaned run-heavy, and Indiana will likely do everything in their power to limit explosives to Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith, inviting even more of that Buckeye willingness to run the ball. 

Pick #3: Alabama ML over Georgia (+120) Click Here to Bet

The first meeting between Alabama and Georgia in Athens highlighted the biggest differentiator: Georgia’s pass rush has not resembled previous Kirby Smart units, and without consistent heat on the quarterback, Ty Simpson was able to pick apart coverage for 276 yards and two touchdowns. When clean, Simpson is efficient and accurate, and that shifts the burden squarely onto Georgia’s secondary.

Alabama’s offense stalled late in the season largely because of injuries, particularly to Ryan Williams, whose vertical presence opens the structure of the passing attack. With Williams expected to return in full, the Tide regain the receiver who prevents defenses from crowding intermediate windows. Georgia’s preference for tight coverage shells becomes less effective when forced to defend the full width and depth of the field.

On the other side, Georgia’s offense has not shown the explosiveness needed to punish Alabama’s defense. Gunner Stockton has been competent but not explosive, and the Bulldogs’ reliance on a methodical rushing attack plays directly into Alabama’s ability to win early downs. Without chunk gains, Georgia is required to sustain long drives to score, and that will be difficult against a secondary that remains one of the nation’s most disciplined.

Alabama has historically owned this matchup in Atlanta. At plus money, backing the Tide is justified.