CFB Championship Week Friday Best Picks

The 2025 college football season has finally reached Championship Weekend, and Friday’s slate features plenty of games that have real College Football Playoff implications. The ripples from these games will certainly be felt across the college football landscape, so let’s dive into our experts’ college football predictions and best bets for Friday’s slate.

CFB Championship Week Friday Predictions

• Pick #1: North Texas Mean Green ML over Tulane Green Wave (-130) Click Here to Bet
• Pick #2: James Madison Dukes -23 over Troy Trojans (-110) Click Here to Bet
• Pick #3: Boise State Broncos -4.5 over UNLV Rebels (-110) Click Here to Bet

PICK #1: North Texas ML over Tulane (-130) Click Here to Bet

With both teams currently ranked ahead of James Madison in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings, this game essentially functions as a play-in game for the right to claim the Group of 5 slot in the playoff. And while this is going to be a difficult spot to handicap given that both coaches are off to Power 4 jobs after the season, North Texas is our preferred side in this matchup. 

Both offenses can be expected to score in this one, but it’s the Tulane defense that could be operating at the biggest disadvantage on Friday. After all, Drew Mestemaker and the North Texas offense is one of the best units in the country in success rate, yards per play, early downs EPA and points per drive. That bodes well for the Mean Green against a Tulane team that has not fared well when stepping up in class against quality offenses this season. With that in mind, there should be plenty of avenues for North Texas to put up plenty of points and keep the Green Wave at an arms length in what should be a shootout in New Orleans. 

PICK #2: James Madison -23 over Troy (-110) Click Here to Bet

This is a fairly simple handicap, as one team is simply happy to be here compared to a team that is playing at home and needing to make a statement in order to have any chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff. There is still a path for James Madison if Duke wins the ACC title and even setting aside the motivation for blowing out a conference rival, the Dukes should have clear advantages on both sides of the ball in this game.

Troy is dealing with a couple of massive injuries on its offensive line, as both tackles are not expected to play in this game. That doesn’t bode well against an excellent James Madison pass rush and a Dukes defense that leads the nation in success rate allowed, to go along with top-10 marks in EPA per play and points per drive allowed. On the other side, James Madison’s offense has been rolling since turning to Alonza Barnett III at quarterback full-time, so let’s bank on another blowout in the Sun Belt title game. 

PICK #3: Boise State -4.5 over UNLV (-110) Click Here to Bet

With starting quarterback Maddux Madsen expected to be back in the lineup for Boise State, this line looks short at anything under six points. In fact, when these two teams played back in October, the Broncos were laying two touchdowns at home and still covered the spread with ease in a 56-31 drubbing of the Rebels, in which Boise State averaged nearly 10 yards per play.

While we can’t expect a similar margin of victory on Friday, there’s little reason to think that the Broncos shouldn’t be able to score on this very poor UNLV defense (112th in success rate allowed), especially with their quarterback back in the fold. Lay the points with Boise State on the blue turf.