Boston College vs Florida State Picks - September 2

The Boston College Eagles will travel to Tallahassee to face the Florida State Seminoles in a highly anticipated Week 1 matchup on Monday, September 2, 2024. Kickoff at Doak Campbell Stadium is set for 7:30 PM ET, with the game broadcast live on ESPN. This clash features a Boston College team debuting under new head coach Bill O’Brien against a Florida State squad eager to rebound from a disappointing season-opening loss to Georgia Tech. With both teams looking to make a statement, let’s dive into the key predictions and bets for this exciting ACC showdown.

Predictions

Boston College +16.5 (-108) 

Under 50 Total Points (-112) 

Thomas Castellanos 70+ Rushing Yards (+185)

Pick #1: Boston College Eagles +16.5 over Florida State Seminoles (-108)

Before Week 0, Boston College was a three-touchdown underdog in this game. Despite still being heavy underdogs, the Eagles have the potential to cover the 16.5-point spread. Last season, the Eagles nearly upset Florida State, falling just short in a 31-29 thriller. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos was instrumental in that close call, throwing for 305 yards and rushing for 95 more, showcasing his dual-threat ability. Although Castellanos had his struggles last season, including 14 interceptions, his dynamic playmaking ability – especially on the ground – makes him a formidable challenge for any defense.

Florida State’s defense, while still talented, is in a transitional phase after losing several key players to the NFL. The Seminoles struggled defensively in their season opener against Georgia Tech, particularly in containing the run, giving up crucial yards in key moments. This sets up well for Boston College, which boasts an elite offensive line and a strong running game. Even though the Eagles are in game one under a new regime, O’Brien’s experience coaching major programs and in the NFL gives us some confidence this team will be ready to go. If Castellanos can avoid turnovers and the Eagles can control the tempo, Boston College has a strong chance to keep this game within the spread. Underdogs are 23-14-1 ATS to start the year, so let's keep the trend going.

Pick #2: Under 50 Total Points (-112)

The under on 50 total points aligns well with Boston College’s potential to cover the spread. Both teams are expected to emphasize the running game, which naturally shortens the game and keeps the clock moving. Boston College’s strategy will likely revolve around controlling possession and keeping Florida State’s offense off the field, limiting scoring opportunities for both sides.

Florida State, now led by DJ Uiagalelei at quarterback, struggled offensively in their opener, managing just 21 points against Georgia Tech. With Jordan Travis no longer under center, the Seminoles' offense is a work in progress, and it’s unlikely they’ll consistently light up the scoreboard with Uiagalelei’s lack of downfield throwing ability and Florida State’s lack of pure talent on the outside. 

Given the likely game script, where both teams focus on running the ball and limiting mistakes, a lower-scoring affair seems probable. The under has strong value in a game where each possession will be crucial.

Pick #3: Thomas Castellanos 70+ Rushing Yards (+185)

Castellanos is a quarterback who can change the course of a game with his legs. He’s one of the fastest quarterbacks in college football and racked up 1,113 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns last season. Against Florida State last year, Castellanos ran for 95 yards, proving he can be a game-changer on the ground against tough defenses.

Florida State’s defensive line, while still solid, is not as dominant as it was last season due to the departure of several key players. Given his ability to scramble and make plays outside the pocket, there’s significant value in betting on Castellanos to rush for 70 or more yards.

Moreover, Boston College’s game plan will likely involve a heavy dose of the run to control the clock and keep the ball out of Florida State’s hands. Castellanos is the type of quarterback who can take advantage of these situations, turning broken plays into positive yardage. With his speed and elusiveness, reaching 70+ rushing yards is well within his capabilities, making this a smart bet.