Ball State vs. UMass Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/4)

Fact checked at 7:30 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026

Odds as of 7:00 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026

Ball State (3-5, 2-2 MAC) visits UMass (4-4, 1-3 MAC) at 7:00 PM ET at McGuirk Alumni Stadium on ESPNU. UMass is a 3.5-point favorite and the total is 49.5. Ball State has 55% of the spread money on 45% of the bets, and 62% of the total bets are on the Over. The Minutemen opened 4-0 with William "Pop" Watson III at quarterback and then lost four straight. Watson hurt his ankle against Eastern Michigan, sat out Miami (OH) and Buffalo, and returned for the 35-16 loss at UConn. He's expected to start tonight, and so is Keldric Luster for Ball State, though neither is confirmed yet.

We expect a one-score game. Ball State's ground game keeps finishing drives, and that keeps UMass's quarterback throwing into the fourth quarter. Both picks come out of that script. The forecast for this open-air night game is mild and dry with light wind.

Ball State vs. UMass Predictions

• Pick #1: TJ Horton Anytime Touchdown (-110)
• Pick #2: William Watson 190+ Passing Yards (-161)

PICK #1: TJ Horton Anytime Touchdown (-110)

Horton leads the MAC with nine rushing touchdowns, and when Ball State's offense is functioning, he's the one who finishes. Luster has been the quarterback in each of the last four games, and Horton scored in all four: once against Toledo, once at Northwestern, twice at Bowling Green and twice against Sacramento State. He has scored in five of Ball State's seven FBS games. The two blanks were a 56-3 loss at Ohio State and a 26-13 loss at Kent State in which Tyler Mizzell threw every pass.

Don't judge him by the carry count. Against Sacramento State, Jalen Bonds ran 17 times for 77 yards and Horton had only nine carries for 33, yet Horton scored from 1 and 6 yards out. That's the role this bet buys. Ball State has averaged 395.5 yards over its last four games, which gets it into scoring range often enough for the role to pay.

The -110 price implies a 52.4% chance. Five scoring games out of seven against FBS teams, plus six touchdowns in the last four, is worth more than that. What beats it is the split near the goal line: if Bonds or Luster gets the short-yardage calls, Horton can come up empty on a decent night for the offense.

PICK #2: William Watson 190+ Passing Yards (-161)

If Ball State keeps putting up points, UMass can't run out the clock. Watson has passed for 190 or more in three of his four FBS starts: 197 at Rutgers on 22 attempts, 210 against Eastern Michigan on 27 and 205 at UConn on 38. The miss was 101 yards in a 35-6 win at Sacramento State, where UMass ran for 232 yards and barely needed him to throw. His other two games were lopsided wins over FCS teams, on 10 and 25 attempts.

In his one game back from the ankle injury he ran seven times for 11 yards and threw 38 passes, his most this season. The opposing lead passer has thrown for at least 187 yards in each of Ball State's last five games, including Aidan Chiles's 272 for Northwestern and 215 at Bowling Green.

At -161 this implies 61.7%. Three of four FBS games is a small sample, but the matchup and the likely game flow point the same way. The bet needs Watson to start and finish. It loses if UMass builds a lead on the ground the way it did at Sacramento State.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.