BYU vs Texas Tech Big 12 Championship Best Picks

Saturday at AT&T Stadium sees No. 11 BYU and No. 4 Texas Tech meet in the Big 12 Championship, kicking off at 12:00 PM ET on ABC. Both teams enter at 11-1. With definite College Football Playoff implications on the line, the story here is whether the Cougars can correct what went wrong in Lubbock just a few weeks ago, when Texas Tech controlled the trenches and dismantled BYU 29-7. 

BYU vs Texas Tech Predictions

Pick #1: Texas Tech Red Raiders -12.5 over BYU Cougars (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #2: Under 49.5 (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #3: Bear Bachmeier Under 34.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Click Here to Bet

Pick #1: Texas Tech -12.5 over BYU (-110) Click Here to Bet

The first meeting between these teams was not misleading in terms of physicality, and that remains the core handicap here. Texas Tech dominated both lines of scrimmage, holding LJ Martin to just 35 yards on the ground and forcing freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier into uncomfortable passing situations all day. BYU wants to play a ball-control style built on early down rushing success, but matching up with the nation’s best run defense again presents the same structural problem. 

Tech gives up only 68.9 rushing yards per game and is the No. 1 team in the country in EPA per rush allowed. When BYU cannot run, the passing game’s limitations become clear. Bachmeier averages just 219.5 yards through the air, and most of that production comes off play action or quick-timing concepts that require the threat of the run to function.

Texas Tech not only won the first matchup but left yards on the field, as Behren Morton missed several open downfield throws, finishing 17-of-32 with 219 passing yards and one touchdown. With the Red Raiders now entering off a 49-0 shutout of West Virginia and BYU facing a far more complete defensive unit than UCF last week, the situational edge points toward Tech covering again. 

The Cougars remain one of the nation’s “luckier” teams, ranking near the top in turnover margin but outside the top 25 in yards allowed. That approach does not translate well against an opponent with a top-four offense and a top-six defense (yards per game). Another double-digit Texas Tech win is the most likely script.

Pick #2: Under 49.5 (-110) Click Here to Bet

The first matchup total landed comfortably below this number, and nothing about the rematch suggests a radically different pace or structure. BYU’s best path is to shorten the game, protect its defense and lean on its top-10 time-of-possession ranking, but sustaining drives against this front is exceedingly difficult. Texas Tech holds opponents to 29.8 percent on third down. 

BYU sits 16th in third-down defense, and their red-zone defense ranks ninth nationally, allowing scores on only 72.1 percent of opponent trips. Both teams force turnovers at top-10 rates and both play clean in terms of operational mistakes.

Texas Tech has every tool to win handily, but the Red Raiders do not operate at 64th in time of possession and are comfortable leaning on their defense and running game when holding a lead.

Pick #3: Bear Bachmeier Under 34.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Click Here to Bet

Bachmeier is a capable runner in space, but this matchup negates that strength in multiple ways. First, Texas Tech’s defensive front is far too athletic for extended scrambles; second, sacks count as negative rushing yards in college; and third, the first meeting showed exactly how this plays out. 

Bachmeier finished with just 12 rushing yards on 11 attempts in Lubbock despite being pressured less than Texas Tech normally produces, with only one sack recorded. Tech controlled the interior and forced Bachmeier sideways rather than upfield, eliminating designed keepers and closing off escape lanes.

The Cougars’ offensive line struggled to win at the point of attack in the first matchup, and nothing in the film suggests that it will suddenly reverse indoors on a neutral field. Even if Bachmeier breaks one scramble early, the likelihood of multiple negative plays erasing that production is high.