Arizona vs Kansas State picks - September 13

It’s Friday the 13th and the spooky date on the calendar sees a battle of the Wildcats with Arizona set to meet Kansas State in Week 3 of the 2024 college football season. Both teams enter the contest undefeated, with Arizona ranked #20 and Kansas State holding the #14 spot. This Friday night showdown, set to take place at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas at 8:00 pm ET, is a non-conference game between two Big 12 teams, due to the game being scheduled prior to Arizona’s realignment, but carries significant weight as both teams are looking to maintain their perfect starts.

Let’s break down the key betting picks for this highly anticipated matchup:

Predictions

Pick #1: Arizona Wildcats +8.5 over Kansas State Wildcats (-115)

Pick #2: Over 58.5 Total Points (-115)

Pick #3: Avery Johnson Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Pick #1: Arizona +8.5 over Kansas State (-115)

The Arizona Wildcats have gone 5-0 straight up in their last five games when getting 8.5+ points. Led by quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona’s offense is explosive and potent enough to keep this game close.

Kansas State's defense, while traditionally disciplined under head coach Chris Klieman, has shown vulnerabilities in their pass coverage. In their Week 2 matchup against Tulane, the defense allowed over 340 passing yards. Arizona has boasted a dynamic passing game led by Fifita so far, with 595 passing yards and five touchdowns through two games. McMillan has 315 receiving yards and four touchdowns, and both him and Fifita will look to exploit Kansas State’s weaknesses. 

It’s also important to note that Kansas State has been practicing without two starting offensive linemen this week. While head coach Brett Brennan is in his first year with the program, which could give pause for Arizona in their first significant game, especially on the road, Arizona’s core players proved last year they can keep games competitive. Tulane covered +9.5 against Kansas State last week and Arizona should be able to cover +8.5 this week. 

Pick #2: Over 58.5 Total Points (-115)

With two explosive offenses squaring off, over 58.5 total points is an appealing option. Arizona's offense, featuring Fifita and McMillan, is capable of piling up points quickly. Despite a conservative showing in Week 2 against Northern Arizona, where Arizona managed just 22 points, they likely reserved their best strategies for this tougher matchup. Fifita has been electric and McMillan has been his top target, making Arizona a scoring threat on every drive.

Kansas State’s offense, meanwhile, is built around a prolific ground game. Running backs DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards, along with the dual-threat ability of quarterback Avery Johnson, create a multi-faceted rushing attack. Arizona has shown vulnerability to the run, allowing significant yardage to mobile quarterbacks and running backs alike. Kansas State’s powerful ground game should push the scoring up due to Arizona’s struggles in containing the run.

Defensively, neither team has been airtight. Kansas State's secondary is coming off a poor performance against Tulane, where they allowed over 10 yards per pass attempt. Arizona, while better against the pass, is weak against the run. With both teams capable of breaking off big plays, expect a high-scoring affair that comfortably surpasses the 58.5-point total.

Pick #3: Avery Johnson Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson is a dynamic dual-threat athlete, and this game could be where he breaks out on the ground. Kansas State has been conservative with Johnson's rushing attempts in the first two weeks, but in a critical non-conference game where they could need his legs to win, expect him to be more involved in the run game.

Johnson has tallied 77 rushing yards on 11 attempts so far this season, and Arizona’s defense has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks. In their first two games, Arizona allowed 39 rushing yards to Northern Arizona’s Ty Pennington and over 130 yards to New Mexico’s Devon Dampier in Week 1. Given Kansas State's tendency to lean on the run, and with Johnson being a key piece of their rushing attack, he should surpass the 42.5 rushing yard mark in this contest. Expect designed quarterback runs and scrambles to be a part of Kansas State’s game plan.