Alabama vs Tennessee picks - October 19

The SEC Week 8 showdown between #7 Alabama and #11 Tennessee is shaping up to be one of the season's most anticipated matchups. The game will be held at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee, with a kickoff time of 3:30 PM ET. Alabama, a perennial powerhouse that has struggled over the last 10 quarters of football, comes in as a slight favorite, and Tennessee, fresh off a string of their own suspect performances, is ready to challenge the Crimson Tide in a get-right game for both teams. Both teams have playoff aspirations, and this game could significantly impact the SEC race and the College Football Playoff rankings.

Predictions

Pick #1: Tennessee Volunteers +3 over Alabama Crimson Tide (-110)

Pick #2: Over 56.5 (-110)

Pick #3: Nico Iamaleava (TEN) 225+ passing yards (+165)

Pick #1: Tennessee +3 over Alabama (-110)

Taking Tennessee to cover the spread at +3 is a solid bet, given the Volunteers’ defensive strengths and Alabama's inconsistent offensive line play. Tennessee has been impressive against the spread (ATS) in 2024, covering 66.7% of their games (4-2). Meanwhile, Alabama has struggled to cover this season, sitting at 3-3 ATS. Historically, Alabama has dominated Tennessee, but this year’s matchup feels different, particularly due to Tennessee’s defensive front.

Tennessee’s defense, led by James Pearce Jr., ranks first in front-seven havoc and fourth in line yards. This spells trouble for Alabama, whose offensive line ranks 102nd in line yards and 106th in stuff rate. Tennessee's ability to control the line of scrimmage and put pressure on Alabama QB Jalen Milroe will be key. Milroe, though a dynamic playmaker, has been sacked 11 times this season, and Tennessee’s defensive line should add to that total.

Tennessee’s effective run game, led by Dylan Sampson, will provide cover for Tennessee's ability to flip the script, play up-tempo and take deep shots down the field to exploit Alabama’s weak and inexperienced secondary. Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel knows he can’t beat Alabama with a conservative offensive approach. He will need to get his freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava in a rhythm, and Iamaleava needs to throw with confidence downfield. With a defensive line capable of disrupting Alabama's attack, Tennessee has a strong chance to not only cover but potentially pull off the upset.

Pick #2: Over 56.5 Total Points (-110) 

Despite concerns about Tennessee’s offensive struggles, taking the over on 56.5 points is a smart play. Alabama has consistently hit the over this season, with six of their last seven games surpassing the total. Even in games where their offense struggled at times, the Crimson Tide has managed to put points on the board. Alabama has scored at least 27 points in three straight games, including a 41-point performance against Georgia’s stout defense.

On the other side, Tennessee’s offense may not be as explosive as last year, but they have the potential to exploit Alabama’s pass defense. The Crimson Tide ranks 101st in passing explosiveness allowed, leaving them vulnerable to big plays. Nico Iamaleava hasn’t put up flashy numbers recently, but Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel is known for his creative offensive schemes, and Iamaleava could bounce back with a strong performance.

Both teams have the potential to score, with Alabama's explosive offense featuring playmakers like Ryan Williams, and Tennessee’s ability to capitalize on big plays in the air. The game could turn into a high-scoring affair, especially if Tennessee’s defense forces turnovers or gives their offense short fields to work with. Look for this game to go over the 56.5 total.

Pick #3: Nico Iamaleava (TEN) 225+ Passing Yards (+165)

One of the more intriguing prop bets for this matchup is Nico Iamaleava to throw for 225 or more passing yards, priced at +165. Iamaleava, Tennessee’s freshman QB, has been inconsistent through the air this season, but this game sets up as a potential breakout performance. While his recent outings haven’t been spectacular, Heupel’s offensive system could allow Iamaleava to exploit Alabama’s shaky secondary.

Alabama’s defense ranks 52nd in EPA per pass. Iamaleava has the arm strength to take advantage of these weaknesses, especially if Tennessee’s run game, led by Dylan Sampson, opens up play-action opportunities.

With wide receiver Dont’e Thornton Jr. leading the team in receiving yards, look for Iamaleava to connect on a few deep shots to stretch Alabama’s defense. Tennessee will likely employ an up-tempo offense, which could give Iamaleava more passing opportunities. At +165 odds, this prop bet offers great value for bettors looking for a high-reward play.