Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction, CFB Week 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/3)

Fact checked at 9:38 AM ET, Oct 3, 2026

Odds as of Oct 3, 6:06 AM ET

Somebody's perfect record ends in Starkville today. Alabama is 4-0, 2-0 in the SEC and No. 7 in the AP poll. Mississippi State is also 4-0 and 2-0, and it climbed to No. 16 after beating Missouri 31-24 a week ago. Most of the attention is on the two quarterbacks. Alabama's Keelon Russell has 1,129 passing yards and eight touchdown passes. Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor has 14 touchdown passes, which ties him for the national lead.

The spread has moved both ways. Alabama opened around -3 before either team played last week, got pushed to 6.5 by Sunday after its 49-18 win over South Carolina, and has drifted back to a consensus of -5.5. The total has gone in only one direction. It opened at 58.5, the consensus is 60.5, and some books are already at 61.5.

Part of that pullback on the spread is Alabama's injury news. Right tackle Jayvin James got hurt in the fourth quarter against South Carolina and is out on Friday's availability report. On the other side, Mississippi State running back Fluff Bothwell and safety Isaac Smith dropped off that report and are available.

Kickoff is noon ET at Davis Wade Stadium, on ABC. Expect a mostly cloudy sky, low to mid 80s at kickoff and a light east wind. There's a slight chance of a shower early, and the odds of showers or thunderstorms rise to about 30% by the second half.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Predictions

• Pick #1: Anthony Evans III Anytime Touchdown (-120)
• Pick #2: Daniel Hill Anytime Touchdown (-165)
• Pick #3: Over 60.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Anthony Evans III Anytime Touchdown (-120)

Nobody else on this roster gets the ball like Evans does. He has 28 catches for 408 yards and has led Mississippi State in receptions in every game, with seven, seven, six and eight. The team has 89 completions, Evans has 28 of them, and no other player has more than 13. He has scored in three of the four games, against UL Monroe, Minnesota and South Carolina, for an offense that has thrown 15 touchdown passes. Seven of the Bulldogs' 12 red-zone touchdowns have been passes.

At -120 (as of 6:15 AM ET) you're paying for a 54.5% chance. For a receiver with this much volume, that's a fair price, nothing more.

The matchup helps. Alabama gives up 221.5 passing yards a game, tied for 86th nationally, and has allowed five touchdown passes. Pass rushers Justin Hill and Desmond Umeozulu are out for a second straight week.

He didn't score last week against Missouri, one of the two better defenses Mississippi State has seen, even though he caught eight balls for 114 yards. Missouri also sacked Taylor four times. Alabama has six interceptions and has returned three of them for touchdowns. If Taylor is running for his life all afternoon, those touchdowns go to somebody else, or to nobody.

Everything here runs through Taylor. He isn't on the injury report, but if he doesn't start, pass. Sanfrisco Magee (+135) pays more and has scored in every game, on just 13 catches. All three picks on this card need points, and Evans covers the Mississippi State side.

PICK #2: Daniel Hill Anytime Touchdown (-165)

When Alabama gets close, Hill is the back it hands the ball to. His four touchdown runs went 4, 2, 3 and 1 yards, and he has scored in three of the four games. He leads the team with 46 carries. Alabama has scored on all 19 of its red-zone trips: 15 touchdowns, 12 of them on the ground.

Here's how much scoring is available. Alabama averages 48.0 points a game. Take out the three interception-return touchdowns and it's still about 43. An offense that scores that much keeps putting its short-yardage back in position to score.

The -165 price (as of 6:15 AM ET) implies 62.3%, and this pick has the strongest argument against it on the card. Mississippi State has given up one rushing touchdown in four games and 3.2 yards a carry. James is out at right tackle. Tyrell Miller took his place against South Carolina and is the likely starter, although Alabama hasn't confirmed it. Hill also doesn't get every goal-line carry: Russell and the freshmen Trae'shawn Brown and EJ Crowell have three rushing touchdowns apiece. Last week Hill ran eight times for 15 yards, though he still scored from the 1.

I'm keeping the pick because none of his touchdowns came on a long run. A 1-yard plunge behind a patched-up line is a much easier job than breaking a 30-yarder, and the short ones are the ones Hill gets. At -165, though, there's very little margin here.

If Russell doesn't start, pass. Russell himself at -145 is the alternative: he has scored in three of four games, one of them on a 57-yard run. Hill covers the Alabama side of the card and doesn't need Taylor to play, which is why I took him over a second Mississippi State receiver.

PICK #3: Over 60.5 (-110)

Both offenses have scored on good defenses, and neither defense stops the pass. That makes the total a better bet than either side. The consensus was -110 at 6:06 AM ET, an implied 52.4%. A few books have moved to 61.5 (-105). I'd still bet it there, but 60.5 is the better number.

The bigger question is whether Mississippi State's offense holds up, so start there. The Bulldogs average 43.0 points and 533.3 yards a game, fourth in the country in total offense. They didn't do it only against weak teams. They put 38 on Minnesota on the road and 31 on Missouri, the only two top-45 scoring defenses they've played. Alabama's 48.0 is less convincing because it came against defenses ranked between 83rd and 89th in points allowed. Still, Mississippi State gives up 249.0 passing yards a game (114th), and Russell has thrown for 320 and 365 yards the past two weeks.

The red-zone numbers point the same way. Opponents have scored on 91% of their red-zone trips against Alabama, tied for 105th. Mississippi State's offense has scored on 16 of 18. Alabama's games have totaled 58, 62, 86 and 67 points. Mississippi State's have totaled 75, 51, 75 and 55.

The risks are real. The Over is getting 77% of the bets, and the total is already up two points from the opener. Alabama is missing its right tackle. Its defense allows 23% on third down and 6.5 points a game after halftime, and two of Mississippi State's four games stayed under this number. If Alabama controls the game on the ground, this could finish in the 50s. A second-half storm delay wouldn't help the Over either.

I took the Over instead of Alabama -5.5 (-110), which is the alternative if you'd rather lay the points. The Over wins no matter which offense has the big day. The spread also needs Alabama's defense to hold up. If either quarterback is a late scratch, pass. All three picks need the same kind of game: something like 38-31 hits all of them, and a slow game loses all of them.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.