Aces vs. Valkyries Prediction, WNBA Semifinals Game 2 Odds & Best Bets (10/7)

Fact checked at 7:58 AM ET, Oct 7, 2026

Odds as of Oct 7, 7:06 AM ET

Golden State beat the defending champions 71-60 in Game 1 on Sunday, its first win over Las Vegas all year, and hosts Game 2 of the best-of-five semifinals up 1-0. The Valkyries went 32-12 in the regular season, the Aces 31-13. Nobody's season ends Wednesday, since Game 3 is Friday in Las Vegas.

What matters most is who the Aces can put on the floor. Jewell Loyd started the last two games, left Game 1 early in the third quarter with a left leg injury and is listed doubtful. Stephanie Talbot (left leg) has missed two straight games and is questionable. Dana Evans (right knee) hasn't played since Sept. 22; she was first listed doubtful, then upgraded to questionable. NaLyssa Smith has been out for the season since August. Golden State, meanwhile, has used the same starting five in each of its last five games.

So we're betting on the Valkyries' defense and size against a thin Las Vegas roster: Golden State covers a short number, and A'ja Wilson stays as quiet on the glass as she was in Game 1.

The market has drifted toward the home side. Golden State is -1.5 on the consensus spread, the same handicap it opened at, but the price has gone from -105 to -113, and the moneyline has moved from Valkyries -115 to -125. The consensus total is 157.5, right where it opened. Tipoff is Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET at Chase Center in San Francisco, on Peacock.

Aces vs. Valkyries Predictions

• Pick #1: Valkyries -1.5 (-113)
• Pick #2: A'ja Wilson Under 10.5 Rebounds (-146)

PICK #1: Valkyries -1.5 (-113)

No WNBA team was harder to score on in the regular season. The Valkyries gave up 75.1 points per game over 44 games, first among 15 teams and 7.6 points better than second-place Washington (82.7). Game 1 looked like more of the same. Las Vegas shot 21-of-62 and scored 60, its lowest total of the season. Golden State won the boards 52-25, and its bench outscored the Aces' bench 27-7. Kiah Stokes was Wilson's primary defender, and Wilson went 8-of-21 from the field.

The injury list makes it harder for Las Vegas. Loyd (doubtful) and Talbot (questionable) are the two players who have filled the fifth starting spot. Brianna Turner, Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, Mai Yamamoto and Kierstan Bell, the other Aces who played real minutes in Game 1, scored 7 points between them. Rest is a wash: both teams have had two days off since Sunday.

The price, -113, implies a 53.1% chance. It has moved toward Golden State at the same handicap since the open, but that move and Loyd's status are probably one story, so don't read it as a sign the number is cheap. And remember that a one-point Valkyries win loses this.

Las Vegas can still score. The Aces averaged 91.5 points, second in the league, while Golden State's 82.2 ranked 14th, and Las Vegas won all three regular-season meetings. All three came in May and June, before Smith got hurt. The public likes the Aces, too: 80% of the moneyline money on 72% of the tickets. Statuses aren't final, and if Loyd, Talbot and Evans all play, Las Vegas gets most of its rotation back.

If you'd rather not lay the 1.5, the Valkyries moneyline (-125) is the same bet without the point.

PICK #2: A'ja Wilson Under 10.5 Rebounds (-146)

Wilson played 35 minutes in Game 1 and finished with 4 rebounds, all on the defensive end. Stokes had 14. Kayla Thornton and Gabby Williams had 11 apiece. That's how Golden State played her: Stokes on her body and everybody else crashing.

One game wouldn't be enough on its own, but her season backs it up. Wilson averaged 9.4 rebounds in the regular season and finished at 10 or fewer in 27 of 41 games, about 65.9% of the time. Her regular-season finale at Phoenix ended at exactly 10. In the playoffs she has 4, 10, 9 and 16, newest first, so three of four stayed under.

You pay for it. At -146 the break-even is 59.3%, which sits below her regular-season rate, but not far below. There are ways to lose. She grabbed 15 and 14 in the first two regular-season meetings with Golden State (9 in the third). The Valkyries ranked last in the league in rebounds per game during the regular season. The 16 came in the opener of the Indiana series. If Loyd sits and Las Vegas goes bigger, or the game turns into a brick-fest with more misses to clean up, there are more boards to go around.

If Golden State owns the glass again, it's hard to see Las Vegas winning, so this one should cash in the same game as the spread.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.