7 Underdogs the Sharps are Betting: College Football Week 11
Welcome to your Week 11 College Football Betting Guide. We’ve handpicked the best underdog picks from the best bettors within the OddsCrowd community and a few +EV picks from our algorithm too. Before we dive in though, make sure you join our Free to Play Weekly CFB Pick’em Contest here. $60 in Cash Prizes.
Rutgers @ Michigan State
Michigan State will attempt to go within one win of bowl eligibility when they take on Rutgers at home. Rutgers are also only two games away. So there is a lot on the line. Michigan State have only had two wins over 10 points this season. We struggle to see it happening again here. featherhat (182-169) and FadingAce (19-12) are taking Rutgers at +10. Our algorithm has identified a 3.8% + EV Edge on the Rutgers Moneyline. But we’re taking the insurance.
Pick: Rutgers +10
See the Best Odds on the matchup here
SMU @ South Florida
South Florida head into this matchup as a pretty heavy underdog. With a 1-8 Record, you can see why when they come up against a 5-4 SMU team who managed to score 77 points last week against a pretty strong Houston team. But digging a little deeper, we think South Florida’s 1-8 record is deceiving. They are capable of competing with the better teams. They came very close to upsets against Florida and Cincinnati earlier this year on the road, and they also covered the 17.5-point spread in a loss to Houston two weeks ago. The Answer Key (260-209), featherhat (182-169) and the OddsCrowd Algoirthm are all aligned on South Florida at +17.5.
Pick: South Florida +17.5
See the Best Odds on the matchup here
Notre Dame @ Navy
Notre Dame have been a very confusing team to bet against this year. Winning when they shouldn’t, but then losing when they shouldn’t too. They’re 1-4 ATS when favorites this year. We're betting this trend will continue. Andybice1 (13% ROI) and the OddsCrowd algorithm are seeing value in Navy at the Moneyline. The OddsCrowd Algorithm is seeing a 10.3% +EV Edge. The Answer Key (260-209) is taking a safer bet and going with Navy at the Spread. We’re taking the +17.
Pick: Navy +17
See the Best Odds on the matchup here
Louisville @ Clemson
Clemson is 8-1 this year, but 4-5 against the spread. Louisville head into this matchup having won their last 4 games straight up and against the spread. They have been smashing the spread in most of these matchups too. For example, they covered the Wake Forest spread by 30 two weeks ago, and Virginia by 17 four weeks ago. The Answer Key (260-211) and CNervins (57-51) are taking Louisville at +7. The OddsCrowd Algorithm is also seeing value on Louisville, with a 3.1% +EV Edge at the Moneyline, and a 2.7% +EV Edge at +7.
Pick: Louisville +7
See the Best Odds on the matchup here
Maryland @ Penn State
The Terrapins have scored at least 27 points in every game prior to their loss to the Badgers last week. We’re going to forgive them for last week and back them to cover here. Ben (47-26 and 35% ROI) is taking Maryland +10.5. Our Algorithm is also seeing a 7.3% +EV Edge.
Pick: Maryland +10.5
See the Best Odds on the matchup here
Georgia @ Mississippi State
It’s a bold move betting against a Georgia team coming off the back of win against No.1 ranked Tennessee last week. We think this game represents a trap game for them though, given the high they are coming off from last week. The Answer Key (260-211) and Andybice1 (13% ROI) agree and are taking Mississippi State at +16.5. Our Algorithm is taking them at 8.9% +EV Edge at the Moneyline.
Pick: Mississippi State +16.5
See the Best Odds on the matchup here
Washington @ Oregon
Washington have won three straight, including an impressive 24-21 win over Oregon State last week. They are coming into this matchup with an extra day of rest after playing last Friday night. FadingAce (19-2) and the OddsCrowd Algorithm are liking Washington. FadingAce is taking them at +13.5, while our Algorithm is seeing a 16.6% +EV Edge on the Moneyline.
Pick: Washington Moneyline
