Yankees vs. Rays Prediction, MLB ALDS Game 2 Odds & Best Bets (10/5)

Fact checked at 7:45 AM ET, Oct 5, 2026

Odds as of Oct 5, 6:30 AM ET; Pick #3 price as of 6:45 AM ET

Tampa Bay took Game 1 of this best-of-five American League Division Series 1-0 on Saturday. Drew Rasmussen threw eight innings to Gerrit Cole's five, and the Yankees finished with one hit. Game 2 puts Cam Schlittler (1.95 ERA in 193.2 innings this season) against Freddy Peralta, who was acquired from the Mets in August. Peralta's combined ERA is 4.42 in 169.0 innings, but it splits into 4.99 with the Mets, 3.25 in 10 starts for Tampa Bay, and 0.79 over his last six. The Yankees (93-68) are -128 on the moneyline, the Rays (98-64) are +108, and the total is 6.5 with the Under at -105. The moneyline opened at -130 on Saturday night and the total at 6.5 with both sides at -110. The line has held since, while the Over's price has gone to -115. On the run line the Yankees are -1.5 (+141). Aaron Judge, out since a calf strain on Sep. 16, is off the series roster, and Clarke Schmidt is out for the postseason. Neither club had posted a lineup as of Monday morning. The Yankees are expected to use their Game 1 order again, and projections differ on whether Cedric Mullins or Jonny DeLuca, who started Game 1, plays center field for the Rays. First pitch is Monday, Oct. 5 at 8:00 PM ET at Tropicana Field, a dome, on TBS and truTV.

Yankees vs. Rays Predictions

• Pick #1: Yankees Moneyline (-128)
• Pick #2: Under 6.5 (-105)
• Pick #3: Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-128)

PICK #1: Yankees Moneyline (-128)

New York has the better starter by more than two runs of season ERA. Schlittler allowed 42 earned runs in 193.2 innings (a 1.95 ERA) and struck out 239. He went 8-2 with a 1.16 ERA in 17 road starts, and he was 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA in three starts against the Rays. Peralta's combined season ERA is 4.42.

Don't read much into Schlittler's last regular-season start. That was Sep. 24 against these same Rays, a three-inning tune-up (two runs, one earned, 70 pitches) that says little about how he works now. Five days later, in the Wild Card Series, he went 6.1 innings and 117 pitches against Boston without allowing a run and struck out 10. The team numbers point the same way: New York allowed 601 runs this season, the second fewest of 30 teams, and Tampa Bay allowed 650, sixth fewest.

The consensus price as of 6:30 AM ET Monday is -128, which implies 56.1%. It opened at -130, and 62% of the money is on the Yankees against 48% of the bets.

Tampa Bay has a real case, and it starts with Peralta since the trade. His Rays-only ERA is 3.25, which cuts the gap to 1.30 runs. He was the AL's Pitcher of the Month for September with a 0.79 ERA over his last six starts, and in four home starts at Tropicana Field he has a 1.69 ERA. He has not pitched since Sep. 25, though. The Rays went 55-26 at home, tied for the best home record in the majors. Then there is the Yankees' lineup: Rasmussen and Bryan Baker held it to one hit in Game 1, and that hit did not come until two outs in the eighth inning. Judge's absence is not new, but the Yankees' 739 runs this season include the 66 games he played.

The Yankees -1.5 (+141) is there if you would rather lay a run and a half. This pick and the Under come in together in a 2-1 or 3-2 game where Schlittler shuts the Rays down and the Yankees get to Peralta once or twice.

PICK #2: Under 6.5 (-105)

Game 1 closed at 7 and finished 1-0. This one is lined half a run lower, and Schlittler is the main reason to stay under it anyway. His 1.16 road ERA led the majors, the Yankees allowed the second-fewest runs in the majors (601), and the Rays allowed the sixth-fewest (650). Tropicana Field is a dome, so there is no wind to carry anything out.

Peralta complicates the first two picks. His season ERA is 4.42, but he has a 0.79 ERA over his last six starts and a 1.69 ERA in four home starts. If he pitches that way again, it helps the Under and hurts the Yankees moneyline. The two picks read him in opposite directions, and both win only in a low-scoring Yankees win.

At -105 the Under implies 51.2%, and it has 79% of the money on 45% of the bets. The books have still leaned the other way. The line held at 6.5, but the Under moved from -110 to -105 and the Over from -110 to -115, so the books shaded toward the Over even as the money came in on the Under.

Neither offense is bad. The Rays' 736 runs rank 12th and the Yankees' 739 are tied for ninth, though the Yankees' total includes Judge's 66 games. Peralta's length is the other worry. Nothing has been announced about how long he will go, he has not pitched since Sep. 25, and the Rays have an off day after Game 2, so a short outing is a realistic risk. Both clubs were off Sunday. Cole, Ryan Weathers, Paul Blackburn and Brent Headrick pitched for the Yankees in Game 1 (Blackburn threw 25 pitches), and Baker was the only Rays reliever used.

To isolate Schlittler's side instead, look at the Rays team total Under 2.5 (+110).

PICK #3: Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-128)

Schlittler has not allowed more than one earned run in a start since Aug. 3. He gave up four to St. Louis that day. Since then he has made nine regular-season starts and one playoff start and allowed one earned run or none in all 10, though one of those is the Sep. 24 three-inning tune-up (one earned run in 70 pitches).

The full season says the same thing. He allowed zero or one earned run in 25 of his 33 regular-season starts and two or more in eight, with a 1.95 ERA over 193.2 innings. Game 2 is a road game for him, and he went 8-2 with a 1.16 ERA in 17 road starts, allowing one earned run or fewer in 15 of them. He has had five days of rest since the Wild Card Series start on Sep. 29 (6.1 innings, 117 pitches, no runs), one more than usual, and no pitch limit has been reported. The Rays had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors (18.8%), so the case here is run prevention, not strikeouts.

The prop price is as of 6:45 AM ET Monday, with the Over at -104, and -128 implies 56.1%. It is not a bargain. The price was -121 on Sunday night, so part of the number is already gone.

Tampa Bay has also hit him once in its own building. Schlittler allowed 3, 1 and 1 earned runs in three starts against the Rays this season. The three came in five innings at Tropicana Field on Apr. 12, and he followed with eight innings of one-run ball there on Jul. 6. The Rays went 55-26 at home, and their lineup is not posted. The 117 pitches on Sep. 29 were his most in any start this year (his regular-season high was 106). One big inning beats this bet, and eight of his 33 regular-season starts had two or more earned runs.

This pick shares its risk with the other two. All three need Schlittler to pitch the way he has all season, so they are one opinion bet three ways. This is the most direct version of that opinion, because it does not need the Yankees to score. If you would rather not stack three bets on one pitcher, the Rays team total Under 2.5 (+110) is the alternative, and it carries the same reasoning. If Schlittler is scratched, all three picks lose their basis, so skip them and recheck the prices.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.