Yankees vs. Rays Prediction, MLB ALDS Game 1 Odds & Best Bets (10/3)

Fact checked at 9:30 AM ET, Oct 3, 2026

Odds as of Oct 3, 6:24 AM ET

The American League's top seed finally plays. The Rays (98-64) went 55-26 at Tropicana Field, had a first-round bye and give Game 1 of the best-of-five Division Series to Drew Rasmussen. He went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA and carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium in his last start, on Sept. 22. The Yankees (93-68) swept the Red Sox 9-0 and 9-2 in the Wild Card Series and hand the ball to Gerrit Cole, who had a 3.61 ERA in 22 starts back from Tommy John surgery. Then there's Aaron Judge. He hasn't played since straining his right calf on Sept. 16, and as of early Saturday the Yankees had not said whether he'd be on the roster, which is due Saturday morning.

The market has barely budged. Tampa Bay is -135 on the moneyline and New York +115, close to where the game opened. The total is 7 (Over -105, Under -114), the same number it opened at, and the run line is 1.5. First pitch is 6:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg on TBS and truTV, under the dome, so weather won't matter. Prop prices are as of 6:28 AM ET.

Yankees vs. Rays Predictions

• Pick #1: Yankees Moneyline (+115)
• Pick #2: Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-118)
• Pick #3: Austin Wells Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-131)

PICK #1: Yankees Moneyline (+115)

New York prevented runs better than Tampa Bay all season, and here you get plus money on that.

The Yankees allowed 601 runs in 161 games, 3.73 a game, second-lowest in the majors behind the Dodgers. The Rays allowed 650 in 162, or 4.01, sixth. Cole faced Tampa Bay three times and gave up five earned runs in 18 innings, with two of those starts at Yankee Stadium. The most recent was Sept. 23, the day after the Rays clinched the division, against a lineup without three of the nine hitters projected to start Saturday. He allowed two runs in 5 2/3 innings and struck out eight. Behind him, the bullpen covered 5 2/3 innings in the Boston sweep and has had two days off since, and the lineup put up 18 runs in those two games without Judge. The +115 price implies 46.5%.

Cole's recent form cuts the other way. Over his last five starts he allowed 16 earned runs in 28 1/3 innings (5.08 ERA) and nine home runs, seven of them across two starts in early September. Rasmussen, over his last five, allowed five earned runs in 31 2/3 innings, a 1.42 ERA, and he held the Yankees to one earned run or none in three of his four starts against them this year. Tampa Bay also won the season series 7-6.

Judge's absence cuts into the case too. The Yankees scored 5.12 runs a game with him and 4.22 without him. At 4.22 scored and 3.73 allowed, they're plus 0.49 a game, about the same as the Rays' plus 0.53 (4.54 scored, 4.01 allowed). So New York's plus-138 run differential (Tampa Bay's is plus-86) leans on games Judge played. Without him, what the Yankees still have over the Rays is run prevention, and that part doesn't depend on him. On the Tampa Bay side, relievers Tyler Wells and Garrett Cleavinger, who finished the season on the injured list with forearm tightness, threw in workouts Tuesday and Thursday and are expected to be available.

Yankees +1.5 (-200) is the safer route, at a much steeper price. The Austin Wells prop below leans the same way as this side, and the Rasmussen prop leans against it. All three can cash in a close Yankees win that gets decided after Rasmussen leaves.

PICK #2: Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-118)

Rasmussen has allowed one earned run or none in four of his last five starts, and the latest came against these Yankees.

Newest first: one earned run at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 22, none against the Athletics, one against the Astros, one at Texas and two against the Padres. That Sept. 22 start was 6 2/3 innings, one hit, three walks and 11 strikeouts on 114 pitches, against a Yankees order already without Judge. The five starts cover 119 batters. Over the whole season the picture is a bit less one-sided: one earned run or fewer in 17 of 30 starts, a 0.91 WHIP, a .199 opponents' average and 14 home runs allowed in 172 innings.

How long he pitches is an open question. The Rays bring five starters into a series that needs three, and Kevin Cash said "our five starters throughout the course of the year deserve to pitch a really big role in this." At -118, the implied probability is 54.1% (the Over is -112).

There's no margin. One two-run homer beats this bet, and the Yankees hit 223 home runs. Ben Rice hit seven of his in 13 games against Tampa Bay. Rasmussen's one rough start against New York came in this building, six earned runs in 2 1/3 innings on July 9, and he'll be pitching on ten days of rest. If Judge is activated and starts, this lineup is deeper than the one Rasmussen held to a single hit.

Rasmussen Over 16.5 Outs (-119) is the play if you expect him to go long. He recorded at least 17 outs in 18 of 30 starts. This pick works against the Yankees moneyline while he's pitching, but a 2-1 or 3-2 Yankees win settled late pays both.

PICK #3: Austin Wells Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-131)

Wells has turned into a run producer at the bottom of the order, and all this asks is one hit, one run or one RBI.

He cleared it in four of his last five starts: a hit, a run and two RBIs in Game 2 against Boston; two hits, a run and two RBIs in Game 1; a run against the Orioles on Sept. 25; and a home run against the Rays on Sept. 24. Over those five he's 4-for-12 with four walks, five runs and five RBIs. It goes back further, too. His production after the All-Star break was 24% better than league average, 10 of his 14 home runs came after he came off the injured list in June, and he has 17 RBIs in his last 24 games, counting the Wild Card Series. He caught both Wild Card games, including Game 1 against a left-handed starter, because the Yankees didn't want to give up his defense and work with the pitching staff for the backup's right-handed bat. Against the right-handed Rasmussen, he hits from the left side. At -131, the book is pricing him at 56.7%.

He has to be behind the plate, though. Ali Sánchez, the only other catcher on the Wild Card roster, caught Cole's last start on Sept. 23 and three of the seven games from Sept. 20 to 25. Lineups aren't out, so this is a bet on Wells starting as projected. If Sánchez is catching, pass. Wells's one miss in those five starts was Sept. 22, the game Rasmussen started, when he went 0-for-2 with a walk. He's projected to bat eighth, and he had 18 plate appearances over the five starts, with only three in two of them. Before the June injury he was hitting .166.

If George Lombard Jr. is in the lineup, his Over 0.5 Hits (-149) is another option. A hit, run or RBI from the No. 8 hitter doesn't hand Rasmussen a second earned run, so this and the Rasmussen Under can both win, and it moves in step with the Yankees moneyline.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.