Who will win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award?

The Rookie of the Year race is winding down in the NBA but it’s not quite over yet. Paolo Banchero, Bennedict Mathurin, Walker Kessler and Jaden Ivey are the favorites with about 25 games left in the season, but is Banchero a lock to win it?

The odds favor Banchero, who was taken with the No. 1 pick by the Magic last year, but Mathurin has quietly gotten himself into the hunt with strong numbers for the Pacers, and Kessler has come on for the Jazz over the last couple months. 

Here are the current odds at FanDuel:

Paolo Banchero, Magic, PF -1000

Bennedict Mathurin, Pacers, SG - +1000 

Walker Kessler, Jazz, C +2700

Jaden Ivey, Pistons, SG +7500

Jalen Williams, Thunder, SG +10000

Keegan Murray, Rockets, PF +13000

The race really looks like it’s coming down to the No. 1 pick, Banchero, and the No. 6 pick, Mathurin. 

Here's how their season-long numbers stack up:

Banchero: 54 games, 33.7 min., 41.8% FG, 75% FT, 1.1 3-pointers, 19.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks and 2.7 TOs.

Mathurin: 62 games, 28.3 min., 43% FG, 82.8% FT, 1.3 3-pointers, 17.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks and 1.8 TOs.

Banchero gets the nod in minutes, scoring, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, while Mathurin has the edge in shooting percentages, 3-pointers and turnovers. 

The Pacers have a slightly better record than the Magic but there’s only a 1.5 game difference and Banchero was the favorite coming in because he was the No. 1 pick. 

And in the ‘what have you done for me lately’ scheme of things, Mathurin has had a quiet February in the counting stats, but has the edge in shooting percentages, currently averaging 14.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.1 3-pointers on 45.5% shooting and 88.2% at the line. Banchero’s February has been solid at 15.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks and 0.1 3-pointers, but his field goal percentage has been bad (35.3%) and he’s been struggling at the line (69.2%).

While this race is still too close to call, Banchero is still in the driver’s seat until Mathurin takes it away from him. 

As for Kessler, he’s averaging 10.7 points, 11 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 3.3 blocks in February, but those numbers drop to 8.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 0.4 steals and 2.2 blocks on the season. Had he played as well over the course of the season as he has in February it would be a much closer race. 

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Ivey is having a nice February at 16.4 points, 2.7 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 0.7 steals and 2.0 3-pointers on 44.5% shooting and is hitting nearly 73% of his free throws. On the season, Ivey’s at 15.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 0.9 steals and 1.4 3-pointers on 42% shooting and 72.5% from the free throw line. 

The smart money is still on Banchero, Mathurin makes for an interesting sleeper pick with a nice potential payout, and Kessler could make a late push to steal the award from both of them. I don’t see a scenario that has Ivey winning the award and Kessler’s still a long shot with just 25 or so games remaining. It feels like Banchero is destined to win the award. 

Pick: Paolo Banchero