White Sox vs. Guardians Prediction, MLB ALDS Game 2 Odds & Best Bets (10/5)

Fact checked at 7:47 AM ET, Oct 5, 2026

Odds as of Oct 5, 6:36 AM ET

Chicago took Game 1 of this best-of-five American League Division Series 3-0 on Saturday, and Cleveland got three hits and five walks out of nine innings. Lose again Monday and the Guardians go to Chicago down 0-2, so this is close to a must-win for them. The pitching plans are the story. The White Sox open with left-hander Anthony Kay, which manager Will Venable announced Sunday, and Sean Burke is lined up for the bulk innings behind him. Cleveland starts Gavin Williams, who hasn't pitched in a game in ten days. He lasted 3 1/3 innings against Kansas City on Sept. 25, and he threw a 70-pitch simulated game Wednesday. Nobody has announced a pitch limit for him, so how deep he goes is anyone's guess.

The consensus price as of 6:36 AM ET: Cleveland -160 and Chicago +135 on the moneyline, a run line of 1.5 (Chicago +1.5 at -175), and a total of 6.5 (Over -119, Under -101). Cleveland opened at -155 on Saturday afternoon, so the market has barely moved. Neither club had posted a lineup as of Monday morning. The Ramirez pick below assumes he starts.

First pitch is Monday, Oct. 5 at 5:00 PM ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland (TBS and truTV). The Monday morning forecast for first pitch is sunny and 60 degrees with a northwest wind around 13 mph and no rain.

White Sox vs. Guardians Predictions

• Pick #1: White Sox Team Total Over 2.5 (-139)
• Pick #2: Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 Total Bases (-171)

PICK #1: White Sox Team Total Over 2.5 (-139)

Three runs. That's all this asks of a lineup that scored 776 of them this season, 4.79 a game and 5th of 30 clubs. The White Sox got to three in 118 of their 162 regular-season games, which is 72.8%, and they have done it in 16 straight since Sept. 14, all three playoff games included (6 and 7 against Houston in the Wild Card Series, 3 in Game 1). The price of -139 implies 58.2%.

Cleveland can pitch. The Guardians allowed 667 runs, 4.12 a game and 8th in the majors. But Chicago has seen a lot of this staff. Including Game 1, the clubs have met 14 times this season and the White Sox scored at least three in 12, the last six among them. Williams started four of those games, and Chicago finished with 6, 3, 6 and 7. He allowed two or three runs each time, but he never completed six innings, and on Sept. 14 he needed 113 pitches to get 15 outs. In three of the four, most of Chicago's runs came after he left. His last start went worse: four runs on five hits and four walks in 3 1/3 innings on Sept. 25, and he has had ten days off since.

What sinks this is Williams at his best. Left-handed hitters batted .197 against him with 157 strikeouts in 445 trips to the plate, and Chicago's expected order is mostly left-handed. Three runs was also all the White Sox managed on Saturday. Williams did give up 28 homers this season, 14 of them to lefties, and the bet doesn't need him to pitch badly or leave early anyway. It needs three runs over nine innings, and because it's a team total, no one player's lineup spot decides it.

PICK #2: Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 Total Bases (-171)

This isn't a bargain, and at -171 (63.1% implied) nobody should sell it as one. It's a steep price for an Under on a hitter who can leave the park. The bet is on what Ramirez has been this year: a .235 hitter with a .368 slugging percentage who averaged 1.39 total bases a game (174 in 125 games). He finished with one total base or none in 81 of those 125 games, or 64.8%, and in 37 of 53 (69.8%) since he returned to the lineup on July 22. Both rates clear the price, the season one barely.

The matchup adds a little. Ramirez is a switch hitter who was far worse against right-handers (.212 with a .324 slugging percentage) than against left-handers (.287 and .469). He batted second in Game 1 and is expected second or third Monday, so he should get the left-handed Kay in the first inning. After that Burke, a right-hander, is expected to take most of the innings. Burke went 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA against Cleveland this season, 21 strikeouts and three walks over 17 1/3 innings in three outings. Read that line with care, though, because Ramirez did not play in two of the three. In the other, on Sept. 14, Burke pitched five innings out of the bullpen and Ramirez went 1-for-4 with a single.

Ramirez has three total bases in his last five starts (0, 0, 1, 2 and 0, newest first). That's 3-for-19 with no extra-base hit, and he was 0-for-3 with a walk in Game 1. Cleveland as a team scored 4.19 runs a game, 24th of 30 clubs, and managed three hits Saturday.

It loses on one swing. A double or a homer cashes the Over (+128), he faces Kay first from his stronger side, and Burke's Wild Card start included three solo homers. Ramirez also had two doubles against Chicago on Sept. 16. Chicago's Grant Taylor and Hagen Smith both pitched Game 1, and Venable said he will take them game by game, so the later innings are unsettled. If Ramirez is not in the lineup, pass.

The two picks come from opposite dugouts and neither needs the other. One asks Chicago's hitters for three runs, and the other asks Chicago's pitchers to hold one hitter to a single. A good night for the White Sox helps both.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.