White Sox vs. Astros Prediction, MLB Wild Card Game 1 Odds & Best Bets (9/29)

Fact checked at 7:05 AM ET, Sep 29, 2026

Odds as of Sep 29, 5:12 AM ET

The White Sox finished with the better record, 84-78, and still open on the road. Houston won the AL West at 81-81, took the No. 3 seed and hosts the No. 6 White Sox in a best-of-three Wild Card Series where the higher seed has home field for every game. Game 1 is Tuesday.

Both pitching plans are on the table now, and neither is a normal start. Astros manager Joe Espada said Houston will run a bullpen game, and AJ Blubaugh, a reliever who made 64 appearances this season without a start, is the listed probable and will open, with Hunter Brown expected to start Game 2. Hagen Smith, who started one of his 18 appearances this year, is the White Sox's listed probable and will open a bullpen game of Chicago's own. Neither club has said who follows its opener. White Sox manager Will Venable mentioned Erick Fedde and Davis Martin as options but said a traditional bulk pitcher is probably not the plan; Houston hasn't named anyone. No lineups are posted, and the Wild Card rosters are not out yet.

The market has leaned Chicago's way since it opened. Houston opened around -148 on Sunday evening and is now the consensus -125 favorite, with the White Sox at +106, though 68% of moneyline bets and 75% of the money are on the Astros. The run line sits at Houston -1.5 (+157) and Chicago +1.5 (-187). The total opened at 8, was 8.5 on Monday afternoon and is back at 8 (Over -118, Under -103), with 67% of the bets and 75% of the money on the Under.

First pitch is 5:00 PM ET Tuesday at Daikin Park in Houston, on Peacock and NBCSN.

White Sox vs. Astros Predictions

• Pick #1: Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 Hits (-152)
• Pick #2: Cam Smith Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-160)
• Pick #3: Christian Walker Over 0.5 Hits (-167)

PICK #1: Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 Hits (-152)

A hit in each of his last five starts, and a parade of Houston relievers to face. Montgomery, the White Sox right fielder, went 1-for-4, 3-for-4, 2-for-5, 2-for-3 and 1-for-4 in his five starts from Sep 22 to Sep 27, with a 0-for-1 off the bench on Sep 26 in between. He batted ninth in four of those games and sixth in the Sep 27 finale, and MLB.com's projected lineup has him ninth again Tuesday. Batting ninth costs him plate appearances, but Houston's plan is the setup: Blubaugh has gone three innings only twice all season and is expected to go about two, and the club hasn't named who follows him. Houston allowed 766 runs this season, 24th in the majors.

At -152 the prop implies 60.3%, with the Under at +114, as of 5:20 AM ET. Several other hitters had a similar week, and nothing in their logs, lineup spots or matchups separated them, so Montgomery got the first spot. His Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs is +133 if you want the bigger number.

Five games against Kansas City and Colorado is a short run, and that is the main caution. His spot in the order isn't set, since the lineup isn't posted and rosters aren't final. Blubaugh has also handled the White Sox this season: no runs and four hits in four innings over three appearances. If Houston gets six or seven clean innings from its relievers, the matchup changes. Chicago +1.5 (-187) is the side play, and it rests on the same Houston bullpen game. This pick and the two below can all cash in a game with a few runs on each side.

PICK #2: Cam Smith Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-160)

Smith needs one hit, one run or one RBI, and he has produced at least one in four of his last five starts. The Astros right fielder put up 0, 2, 3, 2 and 4 hits, runs and RBIs combined from Sep 23 to Sep 27. The zero came Sep 23 in a game where he had two at-bats; the four came in the finale, when he went 2-for-4 with a run and an RBI. He has batted seventh or eighth in that stretch, and MLB.com's projected lineup has him eighth Tuesday.

Chicago's side of the pitching is the reason to like it. Hagen Smith will open; he has a 1.29 ERA over 28 innings and worked two innings or fewer in each of his last three outings. Behind him, Venable has floated Fedde (3.83 ERA over 141 innings this season) and Martin but says a traditional bulk pitcher is unlikely, so it's relievers in short bursts. Chicago allowed 720 runs this season, 15th in the majors. The line is 0.5 at -160, which implies 61.5%, with the Under at +120, as of 5:20 AM ET. His Over 0.5 Hits is -123 if you want the shorter ask. A few other hitters had a comparable week and nothing clearly separated them; Smith gets the second spot.

Houston's card isn't out, and a seventh- or eighth-place spot means fewer chances than the top of the order. The window is five games against the Mariners and Athletics, which says little about a playoff bullpen. A run scored counts the same as a hit here, so a walk and a trip around the bases is enough, but that means the Astros' order has to get on base ahead of and behind him.

PICK #3: Christian Walker Over 0.5 Hits (-167)

Walker has a hit in each of his last five starts, a stretch that looks nothing like his season, and he hits sixth, right behind the heart of Houston's order. He went 1-for-4, 2-for-4, 1-for-3, 1-for-4 and 2-for-3 from Sep 23 to Sep 27, with a homer in three of those games. He was 1-for-4 on Sep 23 batting fifth and has batted sixth in the four games since; MLB.com's projected lineup has him sixth Tuesday. The season line is .226/.299/.427 with 29 homers, and he hadn't posted an OPS above .750 in any month since April before this run, so the last week is a break from his season. Chicago's bullpen game means Hagen Smith as the opener and then a string of relievers; Fedde, one of the names Venable mentioned, last pitched Sep 23, 64 pitches over 2 2/3 innings.

Walker's hit prop is -167 as of 5:20 AM ET, a 62.5% price, with the Under at +125. His Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs is +111 for a higher number. Several hitters had a week like this one, and none stood out from the rest, so Walker fills the last spot.

Start with the price: at -167, it takes 167 to win 100. The lineup isn't posted, and Wild Card rosters aren't in. A season of poor hitting is a fair reason to doubt a five-game run. The two Astros picks lean on the same Chicago bullpen, so a strong outing from the White Sox's relievers hurts both. The three picks don't pull against each other, though: a hit for one side says nothing about the other.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.