Warriors vs Suns NBA Play-in Tournament Picks April 17th

Tonight the NBA brings us a high-stakes Western Conference Play-In Tournament matchup as the Golden State Warriors take on the Phoenix Suns with the No. 8 seed on the line. With both teams fighting to keep their postseason hopes alive, there’s no shortage of urgency heading into this win-or-go-home battle. Phoenix is looking to bounce back after a tough loss in their first play-in game against the Trail Blazers, while Golden State comes in with momentum after a strong offensive showing in their previous outing from Stephen Curry with him scoring 35 points.

These teams met four times during the regular season, with Golden State taking three of those matchups. However, roster context matters here, as Jimmy Butler was active for two of those Warriors wins and is now out for the season. The lone Suns victory came in a tightly contested 99-98 game, highlighting how competitive this matchup can be when both teams are closer to full strength. Across the season series, we’ve seen a mix of slower-paced battles and efficient scoring stretches, depending on personnel and tempo.

After breaking down the matchup, recent performances and what’s at stake, we’ve identified our Warriors vs Suns best bets for tonight’s play-in clash.

PICK #1: Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Golden State Warriors (-110)

PICK #2: Under 219.5 (-110)

PICK #3: Devin Booker over 27.5 points (-103)

Pick #1: Suns -3.5 over Warriors (-110)

Even though Golden State holds the edge in the season series, this current version of the roster is dealing with key absences like Jimmy Butler that shift the balance. Phoenix simply has more available scoring options right now with Jalen Green and Devin Booker and that offensive depth becomes even more important in a playoff-style setting.

The Suns are coming off a narrow loss to Portland despite a big performance from Jalen Green with 35 points. Meanwhile, Golden State needed a huge night from Stephen Curry to get past the Clippers and asking for another explosive outing in a short turnaround isn’t always a safe bet especially with him just recently coming back from injury.

With more shot creators and a slightly healthier rotation, Phoenix is in a better position to control this game and cover the short number.

Pick #2: Under 219.5 (-110)

While both teams have players capable of lighting up the scoreboard, this matchup sets up well for a slower, more controlled pace. The Suns ranked 24th this season in pace while the Warriors ranked 18th. Plus, the lone Suns win in the season series finished with just 197 total points. 

Expect the Suns to prioritize half-court execution, limiting transition chances and forcing Golden State to work deep into the shot clock. That approach not only shortens the game but also reduces the likelihood of a high-scoring shootout.

Given the stakes and the potential for more deliberate offense, this total feels a bit inflated compared to how this game could be played out in Phoenix.

Pick #3: Devin Booker over 27.5 points (-103)

Devin Booker has been the most consistent offensive force in this matchup and should once again be the focal point for Phoenix. He averaged 33 points per game against Golden State this season, including two performances of 38 points, showing he’s more than capable of taking over this matchup.

With the season on the line, the Suns will lean heavily on Booker’s shot creation, especially in half-court sets where he can operate at his preferred pace. His ability to score at all three levels makes him a difficult cover, particularly for a Warriors team that’s thinner defensively than earlier in the season.

If Phoenix is going to advance, it will likely be on the back of a big night from Booker and the volume should be there for him to clear this number once again.