Warriors vs. Nuggets Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/26)

Fact checked at 8:08 AM ET, Oct 26, 2026

Odds as of 7:39 AM ET, Oct 26, 2026

Golden State is still looking for its first win when it visits Ball Arena for a 10:00 PM ET tip. The Warriors are 0-3 and have allowed 123 points per game. They lost 127-105 at the Lakers, then 111-108 at home to Memphis after leading by 12 with under four minutes left, then 131-122 at Phoenix on the second night of a back-to-back with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Brandin Podziemski all sitting. None of those three is on the league's injury report for this game. Kristaps Porzingis is out and not with the team, Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody remain out, and Gui Santos is questionable with left knee tendinitis.

Denver is 1-1, with a 96-84 loss at Oklahoma City and a 141-135 overtime win over New Orleans. Cameron Johnson (right ankle) and Alpha Diallo are doubtful, and Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther are out. The Nuggets opened as 5.5-point favorites and are now -7.5 (-115). The total has gone from 231.5 to 234.5.

We think Denver controls this one. The Nuggets are home against a team giving up 123 a night, and the line has moved their way since it opened. If Denver builds a lead, Golden State's veterans get a short night and the Warriors' scoring spreads out among the younger players. That game cashes both picks: Curry finishes under his points line, and Green stays in the passer's role that has kept him in low single digits.

Warriors vs. Nuggets Predictions

• Pick #1: Draymond Green Under 7.5 Points (-104)
• Pick #2: Stephen Curry Under 24.5 Points (-106)

PICK #1: Draymond Green Under 7.5 Points (-104)

Green has taken eight shots all season. He scored 2 points on 1-of-4 shooting in 21 minutes at the Lakers and 5 on 2-of-4 in 31 minutes against Memphis, and he handed out 14 assists across those two games. He started both next to Curry, the same spot he returns to tonight. The offense runs through Curry, Podziemski and Yaxel Lendeborg, and Green's job is to set them up.

A Denver lead helps this. In the 22-point loss at the Lakers he played just 21 minutes, and a lopsided game here should cut his night the same way. At -104, the implied chance is 51.0%.

Last season is the argument against it. Green averaged 8.4 points, which clears this line, and with Porzingis away Golden State is thin up front. If the Warriors keep it close and Green gets some open threes, one good shooting stretch gets him to 8.

PICK #2: Stephen Curry Under 24.5 Points (-106)

Curry has scored 23 and 24, so he's been close to this number, but he's 18-for-18 at the free-throw line this season and 12-of-30 from the field, 5-of-17 from three. Leaning on perfect free-throw shooting to reach 24 isn't something we'd count on again.

His minutes point the same way. He played only 21 in the blowout at the Lakers and 30 in the close loss to Memphis. Denver is a 7.5-point favorite against a team allowing 123 a game, and if this gets away from Golden State, Curry is on the bench early. Green and Podziemski are back beside him, too, so the shots spread out more than they did in the short-handed Phoenix loss. The -106 price implies a 51.5% chance.

Curry's track record is the risk. He averaged 26.6 points last season, he's rested after sitting at Phoenix, and Denver has allowed 115.5 points per game through two games, middle of the pack. If this stays close and he plays 34 minutes, one hot quarter beats this line.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.