Hawks vs. Rockets Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/26)

Fact checked at 8:10 AM ET, Oct 26, 2026

Odds as of 7:39 AM ET, Oct 26, 2026

The Hawks and Rockets meet again, this time at Toyota Center in Houston at 8:30 PM ET. Houston (3-0) won the first meeting 121-114 in Atlanta and spoiled the Hawks' home opener, with Kevin Durant scoring 22 and Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason adding 19 apiece. The Rockets did that without Fred VanVleet (knee) or Marcus Smart (forearm). VanVleet is not on the latest injury report and is projected to start, Smart is questionable, and Steven Adams (right soleus strain) is out. Atlanta (2-1) has scored 124.7 points a game through three games and is still without Mouhamed Gueye (left foot fracture).

Houston is a 5.5-point favorite (-106), the same number the spread opened at, and the total has ticked up from 228.5 to 229.5 (Over -111, Under -110). We expect the rematch to look a lot like the first game. Houston's starters play their usual heavy minutes in a competitive game, Alperen Sengun runs the offense, Amen Thompson cleans up the misses from Atlanta's high-volume three-point shooting, and Atlanta's bench, led by Aaron Wiggins, keeps the Hawks in range. All three of these Overs cashed in the first meeting, and all three need that same kind of game.

Hawks vs. Rockets Predictions

• Pick #1: Aaron Wiggins Over 11.5 Points (-120)
• Pick #2: Alperen Sengun Over 4.5 Assists (-149)
• Pick #3: Amen Thompson Over 8.5 Rebounds (-116)

PICK #1: Aaron Wiggins Over 11.5 Points (-120)

The best evidence is the first meeting. It was a seven-point game, Wiggins played normal bench minutes (29), made four threes and scored 16, clearing this number by four and a half points against the same opponent.

That fits the rest of his season. He has come off the bench in all three of Atlanta's games and scored 16, 19 and 16: 16 in 32 minutes in the opening win at Orlando, 19 in 22 minutes in the 128-81 rout at Charlotte, then the 16 against Houston. Gueye and Henri Veesaar have been out all season, Jock Landale has been available each night and is listed as available again, and nothing in the Hawks' news points to a change in Wiggins's minutes. The -120 price implies a 54.5% chance for a player who hasn't scored fewer than 16 yet.

Three games is a short look, though, and one of them was a 47-point win in which Atlanta's starters played only 22 to 29 minutes. Wiggins also leans on the three-pointer, so a cold night from outside is the clearest way this misses. He hasn't started a game, so his minutes depend on Atlanta sticking with the rotation it has used all season.

PICK #2: Alperen Sengun Over 4.5 Assists (-149)

Houston's half-court offense runs through Sengun, and he has had at least five assists in every game: 5 in 30 minutes in the opening win over Dallas, 7 in 36 minutes at San Antonio and 7 in 33 minutes in Atlanta. The two games with VanVleet in the lineup produced 5 and 7, so having VanVleet back doesn't take the ball out of Sengun's hands.

Atlanta has already seen this. Sengun scored 17 in the first meeting and still found teammates seven times as Houston put up 121 points. Houston has handed out 32, 25 and 27 assists as a team, and Sengun's share has held steady whether the offense was humming against Dallas or grinding at San Antonio. Adams is out again, which leaves one fewer big behind him, and Sengun has played at least 30 minutes every night, including the 18-point win over Dallas.

At -149 (59.8% implied), this is the shortest price of the three, and the margin hasn't always been wide: the 5 against Dallas cleared by half an assist. VanVleet had 11 assists in that game, so some of the passes that went through Sengun in Atlanta could go through VanVleet. Assists also need made shots, and a cold Houston night caps this one no matter how well Sengun plays.

PICK #3: Amen Thompson Over 8.5 Rebounds (-116)

Thompson keeps rebounding like a big man. He has 10 or more in every game: 10 in 33 minutes against Dallas, 10 in 36 at San Antonio and 11 in 39 in Atlanta, where he finished with 17 points and 11 rebounds. In that game Atlanta made 13 of its 49 three-point attempts, and Thompson collected 11 of Houston's 43 rebounds. That is the kind of shooting night that feeds this Over, and with Adams out, Houston has one fewer big competing for those boards.

The -116 price implies 53.7%. The risk is in the minutes. The 39 in Atlanta came with VanVleet and Smart out. With VanVleet playing, Thompson logged 33 and 36 minutes and had exactly 10 rebounds each time, which leaves only a rebound and a half to spare. Smart is questionable with his forearm strain, and he played 26 and 21 minutes in the first two games. If he returns, Houston's perimeter rotation gets more crowded.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.