Vikings vs. Saints Prediction, NFL Week 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/11)

Fact checked at 7:17 AM ET, Oct 11, 2026

Odds as of Oct 11, 7:15 AM ET

Minnesota is 4-0 with the stingiest defense in the league. The Vikings allow 12.75 points a game, and their 16 sacks through four weeks are the most. New Orleans (1-3) gives up 32 a game and lost 45-24 at home to Atlanta on Monday night. The Vikings are 2-point favorites (-110), with the moneyline at -133 and the Saints at +110. The total is 41.5 (Over -109, Under -111), three points below the look-ahead number of 44.5 and the lowest total the Saints have seen this season. Kyler Murray started the last two games for Minnesota and is expected to start again, opposite Tyler Shough. Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at the Superdome, on FOX.

Both injury reports are long. Minnesota is without left tackle Christian Darrisaw, left guard Donovan Jackson is on injured reserve, and right tackle Brian O'Neill, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are all questionable. The Saints ruled out linebacker Kaden Elliss and edge Anfernee Jennings and list three defensive tackles as questionable with an illness. On offense, running back Travis Etienne Jr. is on injured reserve and Alvin Kamara is questionable with a back injury. Inactives are not out yet.

We expect Minnesota to run the ball at a defense that has not stopped the run, and New Orleans, which has no run game of its own, to throw to keep up. That has happened to the Saints twice already. Their two highest passing-attempt games came against the two opponents that ran on them the most, and both picks below are built for a third.

Vikings vs. Saints Predictions

• Pick #1: Chris Olave Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
• Pick #2: Aaron Jones Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

PICK #1: Chris Olave Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Olave has been targeted 13, 10, 13 and 12 times. That is 12 a game, which led the league entering the week. His yards by week are 182, 86, 107 and 116 on 10, 8, 9 and 8 catches, so he has 35 catches for 491 yards and has cleared 81.5 every time out. Don't lean on the average, because the 182 in Week 1 inflates it. The other three games average 103.

What we like is that his targets have not followed the score. The 86-yard game came in the Week 2 win at Baltimore, when Shough threw only 34 passes and Olave still saw 10 of them. For the season, 48 of Shough's 180 attempts have gone his way. The Saints throw because they have to. They average 3.6 yards a carry and 88.5 rushing yards a game, 26th in the league, and managed 50 yards on 19 carries against Atlanta. Etienne has since gone on injured reserve and Kamara is questionable. Olave himself practiced fully Friday after a bruised foot put him on Thursday's report, and he carries no game status.

This isn't a bargain. At -113 the price implies a 53.1% chance, and Minnesota's pass defense is the reason to hesitate. Opposing passers have completed 67 of 131 against the Vikings, 51.1 percent, and only Green Bay's receivers have topped this number: Christian Watson had 147 yards and Matthew Golden 95 in Week 1. The leading receivers for Tampa Bay and Miami finished with 62 and 67. Olave's worst game cleared the line by just 4.5 yards. But no receiver Minnesota has faced gets the ball this often, and that workload is what we're betting on. If you would rather bet catches than yards, Olave Over 6.5 receptions (-108) is the same side, and he has 8 or more in every game.

PICK #2: Aaron Jones Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Jones has the Minnesota backfield to himself, and he is facing a defense that has given up at least 108 rushing yards in every game. A price of -112 works out to a 52.8% implied chance.

The Saints allow 147.8 rushing yards a game, 30th in the league, and 5.1 yards a carry. Detroit ran for 165 on them, Baltimore 108, Las Vegas 113 and Atlanta 205 last Monday, when Bijan Robinson had 145 and Brian Robinson Jr. added 62. Jahmyr Gibbs had 156 in Week 1. The front is thinner now. Elliss and Jennings are out, and defensive tackles Christen Miller, Nathan Shepherd and Vernon Broughton are the three questionable with an illness.

Jordan Mason went on injured reserve after Week 1. Since then Jones has carried 23, 17 and 20 times for 105, 58 and 94 yards, which adds up to 60 carries for 257 yards, 4.3 a carry, while playing 73 to 81 percent of the snaps. The 58 came at Tampa Bay. Minnesota has a bye next week, so there is no reason to manage his workload.

The worry is the offensive line. With Darrisaw out, Jackson on injured reserve and O'Neill questionable, Ryan Van Demark and Joe Huber are expected to start on the left side. We have already seen most of that lineup, though. Jackson played only 7 snaps last week and Darrisaw 42 of 78, and Jones still ran for 94 against Miami with Huber and Van Demark filling in. Center Michael Jurgens came off injured reserve on Saturday. The record is not clean, either. Jones has cleared this number in two of his three games as the lead back, not all three, and Minnesota averages only 3.7 yards a carry as a team.

The two picks fit together. In Week 1 Detroit ran 33 times for 165 yards and Shough threw 56 passes. Last Monday Atlanta ran 35 times for 205 and he threw 48. A Vikings team that runs well and plays from in front pushes the Saints to the air, and Olave is where the ball goes.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.