Valparaiso vs. Purdue Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/6)

Fact checked at 7:58 AM ET, Nov 6, 2026

Odds as of 7:30 AM ET, Nov 6, 2026

Purdue plays its home opener against Valparaiso at 6:30 PM ET at Mackey Arena. The Boilermakers are 0-1 after a 78-72 loss to No. 15 Gonzaga in Las Vegas, and another loss would mean their first 0-2 start since 1976-77. Valparaiso is 1-0 after an 80-58 home win over Western Illinois and plays its first road game of the season.

Purdue's defense decides this one. Valpo scored 28 of its 80 points in the opener at the free-throw line, and Purdue held Gonzaga to 8-of-25 shooting after halftime. If the Boilermakers keep the Beacons around 60 and win something like 80-60, they cover 19.5 and the game stays under 146.5. With one game apiece, this is a bet on the matchup more than on form.

Valparaiso vs. Purdue Predictions

• Pick #1: Purdue -19.5 (-107)
• Pick #2: Under 146.5 (-108)

PICK #1: Purdue -19.5 (-107)

Valparaiso has lost 19 straight games to Big Ten teams. Its only one last season was an 86-70 loss at Northwestern. The win over Western Illinois looked better than it was, too: Valpo shot 4-of-16 from three and made 28 of 43 free throws. Doing that again against 7-foot-4 Daniel Jacobsen, who had 22 points on 9-of-11 shooting against Gonzaga, is a much harder job.

Purdue has won 23 straight November home games, and the market has moved its way. The Boilermakers opened as 17.5-point favorites and are now -19.5, with 93% of the spread money behind them. At -107 they need to cover 51.7% of the time.

The widely used efficiency ratings put Purdue's margin between 16 and 21 points, so we're laying a number near the top of that range. Those ratings don't know how badly this matchup suits Purdue. Valpo needs the rim and the foul line to score, and that's exactly what a 7-foot-4 center takes away. Purdue made only 5 of 21 threes in Las Vegas, so we're betting on its size opening the gap, not its shooting.

PICK #2: Under 146.5 (-108)

Those same ratings project 142 to 145 total points, short of this line. Purdue's second half against Gonzaga shows how a game like that happens. The Bulldogs shot 8-of-25 after the break and got most of their second-half points at the line, where they went 25-of-30. Valpo's offense wants to get to the rim, and that's where Jacobsen is waiting. If the Beacons stall in the low 60s, Purdue doesn't have to break 80 for this to cash.

The Under has 62% of the bets and 92% of the money. At -108 the implied chance is 51.9%.

Free throws are the threat. Gonzaga shot 34 of them against Purdue, and Valpo got to the line 43 times against Western Illinois. If the whistles come early and often, this can climb past 146.5 without either team shooting well.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.