USC vs. Wisconsin Prediction, CFB Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (10/24)

Fact checked at 7:15 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

Odds as of 7:15 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

No. 16 USC (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) comes off its bye week to play Wisconsin (4-2) at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, with kickoff at 7:30 PM ET. The Badgers lost 17-7 at UCLA last week and gained 214 yards. Colton Joseph went 6 of 16 for 66 yards through the air and ran 18 times for 71. He is expected to start again, with Ryan Hopkins behind him, though the school has not confirmed it.

USC is missing receivers Terrell Anderson and Corey Simms and offensive lineman Kilian O'Connor, all listed out on Friday night's Big Ten availability report. Tight end Mark Bowman and receiver Luc Weaver are questionable. Wisconsin lists cornerback Cai Bates out. Madison should be in the mid-60s and mostly cloudy at kickoff, with a south wind around 10 mph and little chance of rain.

We expect Wisconsin's defense to keep this one low-scoring and close, with Joseph's running doing most of the work for the Badgers' offense. All three picks follow from that game.

USC vs. Wisconsin Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 49.5 (-105)
• Pick #2: Wisconsin +3 (-115)
• Pick #3: Colton Joseph Anytime Touchdown (-115)

PICK #1: Under 49.5 (-105)

Wisconsin's last four FBS opponents scored 10, 20, 3 and 17, and the Badgers have allowed 18.2 points a game to FBS teams this season.

USC brings a thinner offense to Madison. Anderson and Simms are out, Bowman and Weaver may not play, and USC's last two games totaled 46 and 54 points. Wisconsin won't push the number much on its own end. Outside a 54-point game against Eastern Michigan, it scored 24, 31 and 7 in its last three FBS games, and those games totaled 44, 34 and 24.

The total opened at 52.5 and has dropped to 49.5 even though about two-thirds of the bets and the money are on the Over. The Under at -105 implies a 51.2% chance.

USC's passing game is what could beat this. Jayden Maiava has thrown for at least 245 yards in every game, USC has scored 25 or more in all seven, and five of its seven games went over this number, including 79 points against Louisiana and 77 at Rutgers.

PICK #2: Wisconsin +3 (-115)

A field goal is a lot of cushion in a game played in the 40s. Wisconsin has allowed about 108 rushing yards a game to FBS opponents, and no lead back has run for more than 90 against it, which makes it hard for USC to lean on King Miller the way it usually does.

The computer models see a closer game than the line. The median of the 45 systems tracked by The Prediction Tracker has USC by less than a point, and their average leans Wisconsin. Blue Chip Analytics has USC by about 2 once home field is factored in. The full 3 also covers a USC win by 1 or 2, and USC has covered only two of its seven games this season. Wisconsin +3 at -115 carries a 53.5% implied probability.

The line has moved toward USC since it opened, and ESPN's FPI makes USC a 3.6-point favorite. USC is also rested while Wisconsin played at UCLA last week, and a USC win by exactly 3 is a push.

PICK #3: Colton Joseph Anytime Touchdown (-115)

Joseph leads Wisconsin in rushing with 333 yards and four touchdowns on 69 carries, and he has led the team in carries in three of its last four games. He has run for a score in four of five FBS games, against Eastern Michigan, Penn State, Michigan State and UCLA, which accounts for four of Wisconsin's five rushing touchdowns against FBS teams. Even on the Badgers' worst offensive night, at UCLA, his 3-yard run in the third quarter was their only touchdown. The -115 price works out to 53.5%.

USC has not allowed a rushing touchdown to a Big Ten quarterback this season, and Abu Sama's return to the backfield could take some short-yardage carries. Another one-touchdown night like UCLA would leave little room, and Joseph is the expected starter rather than a confirmed one.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.