Warriors vs. Suns Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/24)

Fact checked at 7:08 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

Odds as of 7:07 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

Golden State plays at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix at 10:00 PM ET on the second night of a back-to-back, and probably without its two leading scorers from Friday. The Warriors lost 127-105 at the Lakers on Wednesday, then gave up a 17-0 run late in a 111-108 home loss to Memphis on Friday. Stephen Curry scored 24 in that game and said afterward of playing in Phoenix: "Probably not. But I'll talk to the (medical) staff." Brandin Podziemski, who scored 18, said he won't play. Neither absence is official. Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis and Moses Moody are out.

Phoenix is 0-1 after a 124-83 loss at Portland in which it shot 6-of-32 from three, and Mark Williams is out after shoulder surgery. The Suns are 9.5-point favorites, and the total has fallen from 225.5 at Friday night's open to 218.5.

We expect a low-scoring game in which a short Warriors rotation can't keep up on offense. Both picks win that way, and both need Curry to sit.

Warriors vs. Suns Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 218.5 (-108)
• Pick #2: Warriors Team Total Under 104.5 (-112)

PICK #1: Under 218.5 (-108)

These teams met three times in Phoenix last season, and every game finished at least 11 points under this number: 99-98 Phoenix in December, 101-97 Golden State in February and 111-96 Phoenix in the play-in. That's 197, 198 and 207 total points, and Curry played in two of those games.

Tonight's Warriors are thinner than any of those teams. Golden State went 13-26 without Curry last season and averaged 109.1 points in those games, but Podziemski played all 82, so every one of them had him. Tonight he, Curry, Butler, Porzingis and Moody are all expected to sit, and the team is on the back end of a back-to-back. Phoenix's opener was one game and a 41-point loss, so it proves little by itself, but a team that scored 83 on 6-of-32 from three isn't going to run up a big number without help.

The total has already dropped seven points since the open, so the obvious news is priced in. We still like it at -108, which implies a 51.9% chance, because of how these games have gone in this building and because this Warriors lineup looks worse than anything they used last season.

If Curry is cleared, the reason for this bet is gone. Both defenses have also been poor, with Phoenix giving up 124 to Portland and Golden State 127 to the Lakers, and a lopsided game can get loose in the fourth quarter.

PICK #2: Warriors Team Total Under 104.5 (-112)

Curry and Podziemski scored 42 of Golden State's 108 points on Friday. Without them, the scoring falls to rookie Yaxel Lendeborg (18 on Friday) plus Graham Ike and De'Anthony Melton, who had 10 apiece.

Golden State scored 98, 101 and 96 in its three games at Phoenix last season, two of them with Curry. This season's 105 and 108 both came with him on the floor, and the 105 at the Lakers needed 23 points from him in 21 minutes. At -112 the break-even is 52.8%. A team missing its top two guards on the second night of a back-to-back should come in under 104.5 more often than that.

Pace is the danger. A big Phoenix lead means long bench minutes for both sides, and in the 39 games Curry missed last season the Warriors still reached 105 or more 22 times, though Podziemski played in all of those. If Curry plays, this bet loses its case.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.