Ole Miss vs. Texas Prediction, CFB Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (10/24)

Fact checked at 7:08 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

Odds as of 7:06 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

No. 7 Ole Miss (5-1) visits No. 19 Texas (4-2) at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, with kickoff at 7:30 PM ET. Texas has lost two straight by the same 27-24 score, to Oklahoma in Dallas and at home to Florida, and blew a double-digit lead in both. Arch Manning turned it over three times in those losses: two interceptions against Oklahoma and a lost fumble against Florida. Steve Sarkisian has kept him as the starter but says he needs "a better version" of his quarterback. Ole Miss arrives off a 31-3 win over Missouri and has scored at least 28 points in every game this season.

We expect a lower-scoring game than Ole Miss's résumé suggests, mostly because of the Texas defense. The Longhorns allow 17.8 points and 272.5 yards per game, and nobody has scored more than 27 on them. They'll be without edge rusher Colin Simmons, who leads the country with 10.5 sacks, and freshman edge Richard Wesley, both ruled out with ankle injuries. The offense is short-handed as well, with leading rusher Hollywood Smothers and offensive lineman Jaydon Chatman listed out on the SEC's latest availability report. Texas is a 3-point favorite (-112) and the total is 53.5. Expect the mid-80s at kickoff with light wind and no rain.

Ole Miss vs. Texas Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 53.5 (-105)
• Pick #2: Emmett Mosley 40+ Receiving Yards (-125)

PICK #1: Under 53.5 (-105)

Start with the floor. Ole Miss's lowest score this season is 28. Even if the Rebels hit exactly that, Texas would need 26 to push this game over 53.5, and Texas has reached 26 only twice, against Texas State and UTSA. Its last five outputs were 24, 24, 20, 30 and 24, and the Longhorns managed seven second-half points in each of their two losses. And they're without Smothers, who has more carries than any other Texas back this season.

Five of Texas's six games have finished under 53.5, and the one that didn't was a 59-7 opener against Texas State. The defense has held Ohio State to 23, Tennessee to 17, and Oklahoma and Florida to 27 apiece. The Under at -105 implies a 51.2% chance. With an offense this limited on one side and a defense this good on the other, we make it better than that.

Ole Miss's offense can still beat this number. Four of the Rebels' six games went over 53.5, including a 52-28 loss at Florida, and Trinidad Chambliss should see less pressure with Simmons and Wesley out. Ole Miss's own pass defense is also soft: it gave up 307 passing yards to Louisville and 339 to Missouri, and a big Texas passing night could push this over.

PICK #2: Emmett Mosley 40+ Receiving Yards (-125)

Against Power Four opponents, Mosley has cleared 40 every time: 65 against Ohio State, 43 at Tennessee, 43 against Oklahoma and 76 against Florida. His two misses, 37 against Texas State and 28 against UTSA, came in blowouts where Texas didn't need to throw late. Ole Miss is a Power Four opponent that allows 236.5 passing yards a game, and with Smothers out, more of the Texas offense has to come through the air. At -125, the implied probability is 55.6%.

This pick fits with the Under. All four of Mosley's 40-yard games came in Texas games that stayed under 53.5, with totals of 47, 37, 51 and 51. Texas can move the ball through the air between the 20s and still not score enough to push the total.

Volume is the worry. He caught one pass for 43 yards at Tennessee and two for 76 against Florida, one of them a 62-yarder, so a single big play carried some of those games. Manning is expected to start, though reports this week said backup KJ Lacey Jr. took first-team reps, which Sarkisian denied. If Manning struggles and Texas changes quarterbacks, the targets could shift.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.