US Open men’s singles final picks
Taylor Fritz has a chance to make history on Sunday afternoon at the US Open. He is the first American man since 2009 (Andy Roddick at Wimbledon) to play in a Grand Slam final and he can be the first since 2003 (Roddick at the U.S. Open) to win one. Unfortunately for Fritz, the No. 1 player in the world is standing in his way. Jannik Sinner is looking to cap off his incredible season with a second major triumph, having previously lifted the trophy at the Australian Open. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made for the US Open men’s singles final.
Predictions
Pick #1: Jannik Sinner vs. Taylor Fritz Over 38.5 games (-118)
Pick #2: Taylor Fritz to hit more aces than Jannik Sinner (-140)
Pick #3: Jannik Sinner vs. Taylor Fritz Over 0.5 tiebreakers (-175)
PICK #1: Fritz can make it a tough match for Sinner
Sinner is a sizable favorite on Sunday, but there are reasons to think that Fritz can be competitive and make this a long match. Nobody’s 2024 U.S. Open resume is better than Fritz’s. The world No. 12 has already knocked off three Grand Slam finalists in Matteo Berrettini, Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud. In the semis, he defeated compatriot Frances Tiafoe, who also reached the last four in 2022 and was a quarterfinalist last summer. Moreover, Fritz is a respectable 1-1 lifetime in the head-to-head series against Sinner. The American rolled 6-4, 6-3 at the Indian Wells Masters in 2021 before the Italian battled to a 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 victory at the same tournament in 2023.
It is true that Sinner is playing great, but he is not invincible. The top seed trailed Mackenzie McDonald by a set and a break in the opening round, also lost a set to Daniil Medvedev in the quarters, played two tiebreakers against Tommy Paul in the fourth round and his first two sets against Jack Draper on Friday were 7-5, 7-6(3). It’s hard to see this being entirely one-way traffic for Sinner from start to finish, so Over 38.5 games looks like a solid play.
PICK #2: Fritz will need to showcase high-risk, high-reward serving
There is one specific shot that can keep Fritz competitive in this match: the serve. He wields one of the best serves in tennis and it has been on display throughout this fortnight. The 26-year-old delivered a total of 75 aces in his first six matches. As good as Fritz is from the baseline, he isn’t as good as Sinner. That means he will need to win free points with his serve, which will force him to take more risks and go really big with that weapon. If that happens, it will naturally lead to more aces – and perhaps to more double-faults, as well.
Sinner has served up 54 aces so far at this tournament, which is seventh-most (Fritz is third behind Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev). That is a decent number for the Italian, but it is 21 fewer than Fritz. In two head-to-head encounters, Fritz has 10 aces to Sinner’s five. There is good value on the American to finish with more aces on Sunday.
PICK #3: Service breaks could come at a premium
As referenced above, Sinner and Fritz are two of the biggest servers in the game. The more they hold serve, the greater the likelihood of tiebreakers to decide sets. They should play one at the very least in this championship match. Sinner has played three tiebreakers in his last three matches and another set against Draper went to 5-5 before the 23-year-old won it 7-5. Fritz played two ‘breakers against Zverev in the quarters and Zverev has a big-serving, big-hitting game style similar to Sinner’s.