UFC Fight Night 286 Best Bets and Predictions

UFC Fight Night 286 best bets and predictions

The run of UFC events continues on Saturday when Fight Night 286 takes place at the Oriental Sports Center in China. The card will consist of 13 fights, which will include a main event in the Bantamweight division between #3 Umar Nurmagomedov and #6 Song Yadong.

The preliminary card will begin at 3:00 AM ET and will be followed by the main card at 6:00 AM ET. Further, UFC Fight Night 286 will be available to stream on Paramount+.

Our article will preview this event by including our three best bets, all of which will take place on the main card.

UFC Fight Night 286 Predictions

Pick #1: Umar Nurmagomedov to Win by Unanimous Decision over Song Yadong (-115)

Pick #2: Denise Gomes ML over Yan Xiaonan (+120)

Pick #3: Aoriqileng vs. Kai Asakura - Fight to Start Round 2 (-185)

PICK #1: Umar Nurmagomedov to Win by Unanimous Decision over Song Yadong (-115)

Nurmagomedov enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-1 and 8-1 in the UFC. He has been one of the most dominant UFC fighters in recent years, having most recently beaten Deiveson Figueiredo by unanimous decision in January.

What makes Nurmagomedov so tough is that he has been a very balanced fighter. He averages 3.86 significant strikes per minute and 4.03 takedowns every 15 minutes.

Yadong, on the other hand, enters this fight with an MMA record of 23-9-1 and 11-4-1 in the UFC. His most recent UFC fight ended in a win against Deiveson Figueiredo by submission back in May.

Yadong relies more on his striking rather than his grappling, as he averages 4.34 significant strikes per minute compared to 0.82 takedowns every 15 minutes.

Given that Nurmagomedov is the significant favorite, we shift our focus to his method of victory at a better price. For how good Nurmagomedov has been, he does not generally win his UFC fights inside the distance. In fact, of his eight UFC wins, five have come by unanimous decision. This includes his last four UFC wins in a row. 

PICK #2: Denis Gomes ML over Yan Xiaonan (+120)

At 7-2 in the UFC, Denis Gomes comes into this bout off a win over Tecia Pennington in November. Gomes has proven to be a balanced fighter in the UFC, averaging 4.43 significant strikes per minute and 1.45 takedowns every 15 minutes.

Yan Xiaonan is 9-4 in the UFC, and her most recent UFC fight was a loss against Virna Jandiroba by unanimous decision back in April 2025. Xiaonan has not been quite as balanced, as she averages 4.69 significant strikes per minute and 0.84 takedowns every 15 minutes.

Gomes may be the underdog, but she is 4-0 in her last four UFC bouts, while Xiaonan is 3-4 in her last seven UFC fights. Further, Gomes’ balanced fighting style should help cancel the slight advantage Xiaonan has in striking. At a plus-money price, Gomes is worth backing here.

PICK #3: Aoriqileng vs. Kai Asakura - Fight to Start Round 2 (-185)

Kai Asakura does not have many UFC fights under his belt, but two of his three fights made it to the second round. Meanwhile, 75% of Aoriqileng’s nine UFC fights have made it to the second round. There’s no reason to go against the trends in this one, as both fighters have shown enough durability to last at least five minutes in the Octagon.