Gane vs. Hokit Prediction, UFC 334 Odds & Best Bets (11/14)

Nine of Alatengheili's 10 UFC fights reached the judges, one of them a draw, and the only one that ended early was his own 47-second technical knockout of Kevin Croom in 2022. He is 6-3-1 in the UFC, all three losses came by unanimous decision, and nobody has stopped him since 2017.

Diaz is the likelier winner at -405, which implies 80.2%. He is 16-1-1 with nine straight wins. His only loss was a 2021 decision and he has never been stopped. Eight of his 16 wins came on the cards, two of them over five rounds before he reached the UFC.

At -110, the decision implies 52.4%. Put that next to the moneyline and the market expects about one in three Diaz wins to end early. Against a man who has heard the final bell in nine of 10 UFC fights, we think that's too many.

The short notice is a worry. Alatengheili took this fight seven weeks after a split-decision win over John Castaneda, and replacements can fade late. He has been hard to finish at every level of the UFC, though. Diaz's 0.4-pound miss doesn't tell us anything either way.

The risk is how Diaz has won lately. His UFC debut ended with a second-round rear-naked choke of Malcolm Wellmaker, and the fight before that ended with a spinning-elbow knockout. A finish, an Alatengheili win or a draw loses this. Any decision for Diaz, unanimous, split or majority, cashes it, and so does a technical decision under standard house rules.

Gordon is 38 and has been stopped in each of his last two fights. Jim Miller choked him out in the first round in May, and Rafa Garcia finished him with elbows in the third round in September 2025. Seven of his nine career losses ended early, five by strikes and two by submission, and he is 1-3 since he stopped Mark Madsen in this same building three years ago.

Costa finishes people. Seventeen of his 26 wins came inside the distance, nine by knockout and eight by submission. He stopped Dan Ige in the first round in February and knocked out Morgan Charriere with a head kick in the first round last December.

He is -370 to win (78.7%). Costa inside the distance is -120 at the better of the two books that list it, which implies 54.5%, so the bet needs roughly seven of every 10 Costa wins to be finishes. With Gordon's last two fights in mind, that's a fair ask. Costa also has the longer reach, 71 inches to 68, as he moves up from featherweight after a five-round decision loss to Arnold Allen in May.

Costa's own record is where this can go wrong. Three of his last six fights went the distance, and his last lightweight fight, in December 2023, ended with Steve Garcia knocking him out in the second round. Gordon has 11 decision wins, a home crowd in New York and a 2025 knockout of Thiago Moises, who submitted Costa in 2023. A Costa knockout, technical knockout or submission wins the bet. Any decision, a draw or a Gordon win loses it.

Hokit is 10-0 and 4-0 in the UFC. He fights at a fast pace, and he gets hit. He absorbs 5.28 significant strikes per minute and avoids 49% of what's thrown at him. Those numbers come from four UFC fights. Over five rounds he faces Gane, who lands 5.40 significant strikes per minute at 62% accuracy. Gane also has an 81-inch reach to Hokit's 73.5 and weighed 242.6 pounds to Hokit's 231.4.

Gane has seven wins by knockout or technical knockout. He stopped Alex Pereira in the second round in June to win the interim belt, and before that he finished Sergey Spivac in the second and Tai Tuivasa in the third. Against a fighter who walks forward, five rounds is a long time to avoid that.

The moneyline is -215 (68.3%), and the knockout pays +120 (45.5%). That price asks for about two out of every three Gane wins to come by knockout, and we'll take it. Any Gane knockout or technical knockout wins, and a doctor's stoppage counts as a technical knockout under standard house rules. A Gane submission or decision, a draw or a Hokit win loses.

Hokit's wrestling is the problem. He was a Division I All-American wrestler and averages 3.73 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Gane stops 47% of the takedowns he faces. Jon Jones took Gane down and submitted him in the first round in 2023. Hokit has never lost and went 15 minutes with Curtis Blaydes, and Gane's 2024 split-decision win over Alexander Volkov also went to the cards. If Hokit gets this to the mat, or it goes to the judges, the pick loses.

In 35 combined MMA fights, nobody has stopped either man. Borralho is 18-2 with one no contest, and both losses came on the scorecards, the latest a five-round decision against Nassourdine Imavov in September 2025. Belgaroui is 11-3, and the judges decided all three of his losses.

Borralho's fights run long. Six of his nine UFC fights went the full distance, and a seventh ended in a third-round technical decision. His last three, against Jared Cannonier, Imavov and Reinier de Ridder, all went to the cards, two of them over five rounds. We don't have to pick a winner here, just a fight that lasts.

At -196 the decision implies 66.2%. Belgaroui's power is the case against: he finished all three of his UFC opponents, two of them in the third round, and has nine knockout wins. He was also stopped three times in kickboxing, and Borralho knocked out Paul Craig in the second round. Two fighters who have never been stopped in MMA look likely to go 15 minutes more often than two times in three, and we think that clears the price.

Only a decision after the full 15 minutes wins this bet. Any stoppage loses it, and so does a technical decision, which standard house rules settle on the time the fight stopped.

Cesar Almeida is 38 and has lost his last two. Damian Pinas stopped him in the first round in July, and Cezary Oleksiejczuk beat him by unanimous decision in December 2025. He replaced Johnson's original opponent, and they meet at a 190-pound catchweight over three rounds.

Johnson is 27, 9-0 and 3-0 in the UFC, and his power shows up early. Seven of his nine wins came by knockout or technical knockout, all in the first round, the latest against Eric McConico in August. He has found other ways to win: he submitted Sedriques Dumas in the second round of his UFC debut in November 2025 and beat Cody Brundage by split decision in March. Almeida avoids 44% of the significant strikes thrown at him and stops 53% of takedowns, and Johnson averages 1.87 takedowns per 15 minutes.

At -196, the moneyline implies 66.2%, and some books have Johnson at -215 or -220. The case against is Almeida's power and Johnson's short UFC record. Five of his seven wins came by knockout or technical knockout, including a first-round finish of Abdul Razak Alhassan in January 2025, and he is 6-foot-1 to Johnson's 5-foot-8 with the same 74-inch reach. Johnson's UFC record is only three fights long, and the one that went the distance was a split decision. Johnson winning by any method wins the bet. An Almeida win loses it, and under standard house rules a draw is a push.