UFC 324 Best Bets and Predictions

The UFC makes its triumphant return this weekend with the first big event of the year. This will be UFC 324 and will feature several great fights, including the Main Event for the UFC Interim Lightweight title.

UFC 324 is scheduled to take place on Saturday, January 24th, and will be held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The event is set to begin at 5:00 PM ET with the Early Preliminary Card, followed by the Preliminary Card at 7:00 PM ET and the Main Card at 9:00 PM ET. Further, this will be the first UFC event streamed on Paramount+ following a new deal.

Our article will break down three of the fights at UFC 324 and will include our best bet for each one.

UFC 324 Predictions

• PICK #1: Umar Nurmagomedov Win by Decision (-135) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
• PICK #2: Modestas Bukauskas ML (-145) vs. Nikita Krylov
• PICK #3: Josh Hokit ML (-225) vs. Denzel Freeman

PICK #1: Umar Nurmagomedov Win by Decision (-135)

Our first UFC 324 pick will target the featured preliminary card fight between Umar Nurmagomedov and Deiveson Figueiredo. Nurmagomedov enters this fight with an MMA record of 19-1 and 7-1 in the UFC. He is coming off a win against Mario Bautista by unanimous decision back in October 2025. He's been a balanced fighter throughout his MMA career, averaging 4.08 significant strikes per minute and 4.30 takedowns every 15 minutes. As for Figueiredo, he enters this fight with an MMA record of 25-5-1 and 14-5-1 in the UFC. He is also relatively balanced, averaging 2.75 significant strikes per minute and 1.71 takedowns every 15 minutes.

Nurmagomedov has won four of his seven UFC fights by decision, including each of his last three UFC wins. Figueiredo, on the other hand, has been mediocre recently, having gone just 5-4 over his previous nine UFC fights. Therefore, given the form of both fighters and the fact that Nurmagomedov has won the majority of his UFC fights by decision, backing Nurmagomedov to win by decision will be our play. 

PICK #2: Modestas Bukauskas ML (-145)

Our second pick for UFC 324 will look for Modestas Bukauskas to defeat Nikita Krylov on the preliminary card. Bukauskas enters this fight with an MMA record of 19-6 and 7-4 in the UFC. His most recent fight was a win against Paul Craig by KO/TKO back in September 2025. Bukauskas has generally been a one-dimensional fighter throughout his MMA career: a striker. He is averaging 3.32 significant strikes, compared to just 0.30 takedowns every 15 minutes.

These two fighters have been in very different forms, with Bakauskas having gone 6-1 over his last seven UFC fights, while Krylov is 4-3 over the same stretch. Krylov does have the advantage in both striking and grappling; however, Bakauskas has a strong takedown defense to counter the advantage Krylov does have. 

Despite the advantage in striking, Krylov’s form is concerning; therefore, backing Bukauskas to win is our best bet.

PICK #3: Josh Hokit ML (-225)

Our final UFC 324 pick will look for Josh Hokit to defeat Denzel Freeman on the early preliminary card. Hokit enters this fight with an MMA record of 7-0 and 2-0 in the UFC. While his UFC career is just getting started, Hokit has already shown elite striking and grappling ability. He is averaging 5.12 significant strikes per minute and 12.80 takedowns every 15 minutes. 

Freeman has also had a promising start to his UFC career, but has not been nearly as dominant as Hokit. He has only fought once in the UFC, but won by unanimous decision, while Hokit won both of his UFC fights by KO/TKO and both before the start of the third round. Therefore, because Hokit has already looked more promising, backing Hokit to win is our play.