Trail Blazers vs Suns NBA Play-in Tournament Picks April 14th

Trail Blazers vs Suns NBA Play-in Tournament Picks April 14th

The Western Conference Play-In Tournament delivers a fascinating matchup on Tuesday night, as the No. 7 seed Phoenix Suns host the No. 8 seed Portland Trail Blazers at the Mortgage Matchup Center. Tip-off is set for 10:00 PM ET on Prime Video, with the winner advancing to face the San Antonio Spurs in the first round and the loser getting one more shot at survival later this week.

Phoenix leans on half-court execution and the starry shot-making of Devin Booker, while Portland arrives with a fearless, fast, youthful core that wants to turn this into a track meet. 

Trail Blazers vs Suns NBA Play-in Predictions

Pick #1: Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Portland Trail Blazers (-110)

Pick #2: Under 218.5 (-110)

Pick #3: Dillon Brooks Over 19.5 Points (-110)

PICK #1: Suns -3.5 over Trail Blazers (-110)

It’s all about stability in a one-game sample, and even in a retooled form, Phoenix has more of it than Portland.

Yes, the Suns no longer have Kevin Durant, and yes, this roster is more volatile than it was a year ago. But at home, in a win-or-go-home game, the best player on the floor still matters most. That player is Devin Booker, and Portland simply does not have a clean answer for him in the half-court.

The Trail Blazers will likely throw Jrue Holiday at Booker for long stretches, and that’s smart. But committing that level of defensive attention opens the door for Phoenix’s secondary options to step into larger roles. 

Portland closed the season strong, winning seven of ten, but this is a significant step up in competition and pressure. Their offensive identity thrives in transition and chaos, but postseason environments tend to slow down and tighten.

Phoenix, meanwhile, went 23-17-1 ATS at home this season and has already taken two of three meetings in this matchup. Trust the team with the elite shot-maker and home floor to get it done.

PICK #2: Under 218.5 (-110)

Play-in games historically lean under. The pace drops, rotations shorten, and every possession carries more weight. That especially works against a Portland team that prefers to run and generate easy looks before the defense gets set.

The Blazers have actually been an under team down the stretch, hitting the under in six of their last eight games and six of their last nine on the road.

On the other side, Phoenix’s path to winning this game is not by running with Portland, but by controlling tempo. They want Booker operating in his mid-range spots, drawing attention and forcing Portland to defend deep into the shot clock.

There are also injury concerns that could impact scoring depth for Phoenix, particularly if Jalen Green is limited or unavailable. That puts even more pressure on a smaller group of creators and naturally slows the game down.

PICK #3: Dillon Brooks Over 19.5 Points (-110)

Dillon Brooks is one of the most confident players in the NBA. In a one-game scenario, that confidence becomes an asset, not a liability.

If Portland commits Holiday to Booker, the ball is going to swing elsewhere. And in Phoenix’s current structure, that means more opportunities for Brooks to attack and assert himself offensively.

There is a clear path to volume here. Phoenix needs a secondary scorer to complement Booker, especially if their depth is compromised. Brooks, for all his flaws, is never shy about stepping into that role.

And stylistically, this matchup fits. Portland’s young perimeter defenders can be baited into mistakes, and Brooks thrives in physical, emotional games where he can impose himself.