Toledo vs. Michigan State Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/5)

Fact checked at 6:38 AM ET, Nov 5, 2026

Odds as of 6:06 AM ET, Nov 5, 2026

No. 6 Michigan State (1-0) hosts Toledo (0-1) at 8:00 PM ET at the Breslin Center, on NBCSN and Peacock. The Spartans are 26.5-point favorites and the total is 153. Michigan State should win comfortably and score a lot, with Toledo's offense hanging around in the mid-60s. Those Toledo points do two jobs: they keep the margin under 27 and push the total past 153. A 90-66 final wins both.

Each team has played once, so every current-season number here comes from a single game.

Toledo vs. Michigan State Predictions

• Pick #1: Toledo +26.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Over 153 (-112)

PICK #1: Toledo +26.5 (-110)

The MAC's coaches picked Toledo second this season, and the Rockets nearly backed it up in their opener at Arkansas State, the Sun Belt coaches' preseason favorite. Down 60-51 with 7:03 left, Toledo went ahead 68-67 on Angel Montas Jr.'s tip-in with 1:36 to go, tied it 70-70 on Jaylan Ouwinga's jumper with 30 seconds left, and lost on a free throw with four seconds remaining. It covered as a 3.5-point underdog while making only 6 of 27 threes.

Most of this roster is new. Center Austin Parks is the only returning starter, and the transfers delivered right away: Sean Jones (Marquette) had nine assists, and Montas (UMass Lowell) put up 16 points and 10 rebounds off the bench. Michigan State is still replacing two starting post players, Carson Cooper and Jaxon Kohler. Tom Izzo said after the opener that Anton Bonke "still struggles with movement, but he was much, much better than he's been." Jesse McCulloch is expected back from a minor concussion.

The line has moved our way. Previews published the day before had Michigan State -25.5, and it's 26.5 now, so we get an extra point. The -110 price implies 52.4%. Toledo has drawn 44% of the spread money on 34% of the bets.

Michigan State's depth is the danger. The Spartans shot 36-of-62 against Quinnipiac with 12 different scorers, and this is Toledo's second road game in four days. Michigan State also won this matchup 92-69 at home last season, but Toledo's best player that night, Sonny Wilson, who scored 29, now plays at South Florida.

PICK #2: Over 153 (-112)

Izzo said it himself: "This team (Toledo) can make a lot of shots." He added that Tod Kowalczyk's scoring has "always been in the 80s." The Rockets averaged 81.0 points per game last season, and they still scored 70 at Arkansas State on a night Mynor Strong went 3-of-12 from three.

The team totals are 89.5 for Michigan State and 63.5 for Toledo, which add up to exactly 153. In our script Toledo clears its number, and Michigan State only has to play to its own. The Spartans scored 96 in their opener with six players in double figures, while Jeremy Fears Jr. had 13 points and 11 assists. Kaleb Glenn scored 11 in 12 minutes in his first action since the 2024-25 season. Last season's meeting finished with 161 points.

At -112, the implied chance is 52.8%. A slow night from Toledo sinks it: its opener produced just 141 points, and Michigan State held Quinnipiac to 59 on 36% shooting. The Over is also the popular side, with 86% of the bets.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.