Titans vs Dolphins NFL Week 4 MNF picks

Two teams who desperately need a win face off Monday night in Miami. The Dolphins host the Tennessee Titans at Hard Rock Stadium at 7:30 PM ET. Miami, looking to reach the postseason for the third straight year, has fallen apart in the last two weeks. 

After dismantling the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, Miami has lost two straight by three touchdowns each, losing quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) and Skylar Thompson (ribs) in the process. Tennessee is in an even worse state as the Titans are one of just three winless teams left in the NFL. Shoddy quarterback play and a league-worst -7 turnover differential have placed Tennessee and Jacksonville in the AFC South cellar.  

See below for our experts’ Titans vs Dolphins predictions for this Monday night matchup. 

NFL Week 4 MNF Predictions

Pick #1: Tennessee Titans +1 (-115) 

Pick #2: Over 36.5 points (-115)

Pick #3: Tony Pollard Over 60 Rushing Yards (+135)

Titans vs Dolphins prediction: Titans +1 (-115)

Recent trends make it hard to confidently pick either team in this contest. Tennessee is 1-11 straight up in its last 12 road games. It’s also 1-6 straight up overall in its previous seven and 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five. Meanwhile, Miami is 1-5 straight up and 0-6 ATS in its previous six games. 

Whomever Miami trots out at quarterback – Thompson or backups Tim Boyle or Tyler Huntley – will be going up against Tennessee’s fifth-ranked defense. The Titans have allowed just 263.7 total yards a game. They’ve been especially stingy against the pass, allowing just 139.3 yards per contest. The team also allows 26 points a game, but Miami only scores 11 points a contest, highlighted by just 13 points in its two losses.

Look for Tennessee to win a sloppy game late on the road and cover that one-point spread.

Titans vs Dolphins pick: Over 36.5 points (-115)

Both teams rank in the bottom five in points scored, with Miami averaging 11 points and Tennessee not much better at 16 points per game. Both teams’ offenses have been mediocre at best, with the Dolphins’ virtually nonexistent with the loss of Tagovailoa. 

The thought here, with such a low total, is that both teams will surrender enough points in something along the lines of a 21-17 affair. The Titans have given up at least 24 points in their three losses, and Miami has allowed 27.5 points in its two losses.

Miami and Tennessee have played to the over six times in their last nine matchups. It won’t be pretty, but look for the teams to play to the over on 36.5 points this go-around. 

Titans vs Dolphins player prop pick: Tony Pollard 60+ Rushing Yards (+135)

It was a disappointing Week 3 for Pollard, who rushed just six times for 14 yards in the Titans’ 30-14 loss to the Green Bay Packers. Tennessee fell behind by double digits early, and Pollard did not factor much in the comeback attempt. However, Pollard ran for 62 yards against the New York Jets in Week 1 and 82 yards and a touchdown against the Chicago Bears in Week 2.

The Dolphins have allowed 112 yards per game on the ground and have been especially hospitable to the opposing team’s lead back. Zach Charbonnet had 91 yards and two touchdowns rushing for the Seattle Seahawks last week after Buffalo’s James Cook went for 78 yards, including 7.1 yards per carry, and two scores the week before. Heck, even Jacksonville’s Tank Bigsby averaged 6.1 yards a carry while totaling 73 yards in Week 1.

Look for Pollard to return to his first two weeks’ production against Miami. If you are feeling especially adventurous, Pollard is going for +220 over 70 yards rushing and +360 over 80 yards, both attainable numbers in this matchup.