Timberwolves vs Spurs NBA Playoffs Game 1 Picks

The first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs is in the books, and eight teams will continue to fight for the Larry O’Brien Trophy. In the Western Conference, the Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs will kick off their series tonight, but Minnesota star Anthony Edwards’ status for Game 1 is up in the air. After missing the last two games with a left knee injury, Edwards has been cleared for on-court basketball activities. If he plays, the Timberwolves’ chances of winning increase exponentially, but we won’t know that until tip-off tonight at 9:30 pm ET. 

Either way, we have our Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 1 picks, so let’s get into it.

Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 1 Predictions

• Pick #1: Minnesota Timberwolves +12.5 over San Antonio Spurs (-105)
• Pick #2: Over 217.5 (-110) 
• Pick #3: Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 Blocks (+100)

PICK #1: Timberwolves +12.5 over Spurs (-105)

The Minnesota Timberwolves eliminated the Denver Nuggets in the first round in six games, and they ended the series with Edwards on the bench. The main reason the T-Wolves thrived against Denver was their defense, as they gave up just 107.5 PPG in the series and 101 PPG in the four victories. Although Edwards could miss Game 1 tonight, Minnesota should get Ayo Dosunmu back, which should give their offense a boost. The biggest challenge for the Timberwolves will be that they’ll now have to deal with Victor Wembanyama patrolling the paint, who is a slightly different defender compared to Nikola Jokic.

Wembanyama missed Game 3 against the Portland Trail Blazers in Round 1, but the Spurs still took care of business in his absence and won the series in five games. San Antonio’s defense looked elite against Portland, but Minnesota will be a different animal. The Spurs are 17-3 in their last 20 games, but they’re 1-2 against the T-Wolves this season, and Minnesota is 4-2 against the spread in the last six meetings between these squads. The last time Minnesota lost by 12+ was on April 5, and I can’t see them getting blown out tonight. Take the T-Wolves +12.5 now, and if Edwards does play, that number will likely be cut in half before the game starts.

PICK #2: Over 217.5 (-110)

The Over is 2-1 in these two squads' three games this season, and they played to a 126-123 scoreline when they faced off in San Antonio at the end of January. Both teams’ defenses excelled in the opening round, but we expect this series to have a different feel. If the game slows down, San Antonio will have an advantage, so we expect Minnesota to try to turn this series into a track meet. If they allow the Spurs to set up their defense, scoring will be an issue, especially if Ant sits out again.

Both squads have been cashing the Under lately, as it’s won in four of Minnesota’s last six games and in four of San Antonio’s last five. I expect this trend to regress, especially because they combined for an average of 231 points in their three meetings this season. Like the T-Wolves +12.5, we’d recommend grabbing this Over now because it will likely inflate a few points if Ant does play.

PICK #3: Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 Blocks (+100)

In the end, we expect the Timberwolves to cover in a high-scoring affair, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be denied at the rim multiple times by San Antonio’s French superstar. After missing Game 3, Wemby returned for two wins against the Blazers and recorded 13 combined blocks in them. Portland had no chance of scoring at the rim, and although Minnesota is more physical, Wemby should deny them at least four times. The Timberwolves had success attacking the rim against the Nuggets and Jokic, but the Spurs, and specifically, Wembanyama, defend the rim at another level.

If the visitors want to win this game, they'll need to hit threes early and often because they’ll have no chance of scoring in the paint. Back Wembanyama Over 3.5 Blocks (+100) in Game 1 tonight.