Timberwolves vs. Rockets Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (11/4)

Fact checked at 7:27 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026

Odds as of 7:00 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026

The Timberwolves (5-3) visit the Rockets (7-1) at Toyota Center for an 8:30 PM ET tip, and Houston's defense should decide this one. The Rockets allow 106.4 points per game, fourth-fewest in the league, they've won all four home games by 10 or more, and Minnesota is still playing without Anthony Edwards after arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. If Houston builds the lead we expect, it covers, and its starters sit for a chunk of the fourth quarter. That second part is why we like Amen Thompson under his rebounds line.

Minnesota is also missing Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles), and Terrence Shannon Jr. (hip) is questionable after sitting out the Bucks game. Houston has Steven Adams out and Clint Capela (ankle) questionable. Houston hasn't confirmed its starting lineup.

Timberwolves vs. Rockets Predictions

• Pick #1: Rockets -8.5 (-105)
• Pick #2: Amen Thompson Under 6.5 Rebounds (-120)

PICK #1: Rockets -8.5 (-105)

Houston has been overwhelming at home: 128-110 over Dallas, 120-110 over Atlanta, 119-98 over Oklahoma City and 109-93 over Boston. Neither of the last two opponents reached 100. Across all eight games, the Rockets have won by nine or more five times.

Minnesota is 2-2 since Edwards scored 47 in a 127-125 loss at Cleveland, and its one road game in that stretch was a 121-111 loss at San Antonio. Without him the Wolves have scored 114, 127, 111 and 112. That got the job done against Milwaukee and the Clippers. Against a defense that just held Boston to 93, it's a lot to ask.

At -105 the price implies 51.2%. Minnesota's habit of staying inside the number is the worry: it has covered in four of its last five, including that 10-point loss as a 12.5-point underdog in San Antonio. Most projections we checked have Houston winning by five to eight points, so we're trusting the home form over the models. If Capela sits too, Houston is thin at center with Adams already out, although it beat Boston without either of them.

PICK #2: Amen Thompson Under 6.5 Rebounds (-120)

Thompson has grabbed 5, 4, 3, 3 and 3 rebounds in his last five games, all starts. Minutes haven't been the issue, since he played 39 at Dallas and still finished with three. In Houston's last three home wins, all by 10 or more, he played 25 to 28 minutes, and a lopsided game tonight would cut his night short again.

At -120 the implied probability is 54.5%, and we'll be upfront about the small sample. His first three games produced 10, 10 and 11 rebounds, he averages 6.1 for the season, and he averaged 7.8 last season. Still, he's under 6.5 in five of eight games this year, with Alperen Sengun averaging 8.7 rebounds and Jabari Smith Jr. grabbing 10 and 9 in the last two games.

Capela's ankle is the other risk, because a missing big man can leave more rebounds for a wing. Thompson had three in the Boston game that both Capela and Adams missed. The pick assumes he starts and plays his usual minutes.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.