Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/26)

Fact checked at 8:08 AM ET, Oct 26, 2026

Odds as of 7:39 AM ET, Oct 26, 2026

Minnesota arrives at Rocket Arena unbeaten and on the second night of a back-to-back, with tipoff at 7:00 PM ET. The Timberwolves are 3-0 after a 117-94 home win over Toronto. They have won all three games by 22 points or more and allowed 97.7 points a game, second-fewest in the league through three games. Cleveland is 1-1, with a 114-106 loss at Philadelphia and a 125-121 home win over Brooklyn, and it comes in rested.

We expect this game to be played on Minnesota's terms. The Timberwolves' defense keeps Cleveland's offense in check, James Harden stays a secondary scorer, and the game finishes under the total. Both picks need that game.

Cleveland is a 3.5-point favorite (-113), down from -4.5 when the line opened, with Minnesota +3.5 (-107). The total is 232.5, where it opened, and the moneyline is Cleveland -163, Minnesota +135. Cleveland's official injury report lists Khalifa Diop, Nae'Qwan Tomlin and Ernest Udeh Jr. out, and none of them has played this season. Minnesota hasn't filed its report yet. Donte DiVincenzo remains out after surgery, as he has been all season. Both starting lineups are projections until the teams confirm them.

Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers Predictions

• Pick #1: James Harden Under 17.5 Points (-125)
• Pick #2: Under 232.5 (-108)

PICK #1: James Harden Under 17.5 Points (-125)

Harden isn't Cleveland's first option, and the scoring goes elsewhere. Donovan Mitchell led Cleveland in both games, with 32 and 22, and Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley added 21 and 20 against Brooklyn. Harden scored 16 at Philadelphia and 12 against Brooklyn, under this number both times, in 33 minutes each, with five and seven assists.

Minnesota's defense points the same way. The Timberwolves have held Miami, Orlando and Toronto to 106 points or fewer, an average of 97.7 that is second-fewest in the league. When a defense like that squeezes Cleveland, its third or fourth scorer is the one likeliest to come up short.

The price is steep: the Under costs -125, which implies a 55.6% chance, with the Over at -102. Harden also has a way to score without making shots: he went 1-of-8 from the field against Brooklyn and still got to 12 by hitting 9 of 11 free throws, and a few more trips to the line would put him over 17.5. Minnesota's defensive numbers come from only three games, too.

PICK #2: Under 232.5 (-108)

Three of the five games these teams have played stayed under 232.5. Minnesota's finished with 237, 208 and 211 points, and Cleveland's with 220 and 246. At -108, the Under implies a 51.9% chance.

The Timberwolves have given up 106, 93 and 94 points and won all three comfortably without getting into a shootout. Cleveland scored 106 in its one road game, at Philadelphia, and Minnesota has allowed fewer points a game so far than Philadelphia's 107. Add tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back and a slower game makes sense. The total opened at 232.5, and some books have 233.5, a better number for the Under.

Minnesota's offense is the main risk. It averages 121 a game through three games, tied for sixth in the league, and Cleveland has allowed 117.5 a game in its two. The Cavaliers' 125-121 win over Brooklyn sailed past this number, and a close finish full of late fouls could push this one over even if the first three quarters are slow.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.