Thunder vs Pacers NBA Finals Game 6 picks, 6/19

The first elimination situation of the 2024-25 NBA Finals will take place on Thursday night, as the Indiana Pacers look to win at home in Game 6 against the Oklahoma City Thunder and force a Game 7 back in OKC. Indiana once held leads of 1-0 and 2-1 in this series, but it has since lost back-to-back contests for the first time during these playoffs. Coming off victories on Friday and Monday, the Thunder are one win away from their first title since moving to Oklahoma City from Seattle in 2008.

With tip-off set for 8:30 pm ET, it’s time to take a look at the odds and Thunder vs Pacers best bets to make.

Thunder vs Pacers Game 6 Predictions 

Pick #1: Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 over Indiana Pacers (-112) 

Pick #2: Under 222.5 (-110) 

Pick #3: Evan Mobley Over 17.5 points (-115) 

PICK #1: Thunder -6.5 over Pacers (-112)

It feels like the Pacers had their one real chance to win this series in Game 4. They led 2-1 overall and by double-digits in the second half last Friday night. In fact, according to the live odds, it was Indiana that was favored to win the NBA title at that stage. However, the Pacers ended up losing 111-104 and then Game 5 in Oklahoma City was a complete disaster. The visitors did not get blown out by any means, but Tyrese Haliburton suffered a strained calf and finished with four points on zero field goals. 

With the Thunder having seized control of the NBA Finals, you would have to feel good about their chances in Game 6 even with the Pacers at full strength. And they won’t be fully loaded with Haliburton either not playing at all or at best hobbled. The star guard is a game-time decision and will probably play, but according to reports, he would be unlikely to suit up in this physical state for either a first or second-round playoff matchup.  

PICK #2: Under 222.5 (-110)

The over cashed on Monday, but that was mostly due to a 63-point fourth quarter in which Oklahoma City’s lead was getting out of hand and commitment to defense was lacking. It’s not like Game 5 was high scoring the entire way. Game 4 produced a modest 215 points, so points are not coming easy.

Mainly because of Haliburton’s woes, another relatively low-scoring affair should be anticipated. The Pacers ranked eighth in pace of play (103.7 possessions per game) during the regular season, but they will want to slow it down for multiple reasons on Thursday. One, they are clearly the inferior team and the fewer possessions the better in that scenario; two, their star player is currently a shadow of his real self. OKC boasted the No. 1 scoring defense in the Western Conference during the regular season, so don’t be surprised if it appropriately caps off a title-winning campaign with a dominant performance on that end of the floor.

PICK #3: Pascal Siakam Over 20.5 points (-125) 

In a do-or-die situation and with Indiana’s other best player compromised, Pascal Siakam simply has to step up for his team to have any chance. That is exactly what the 31-year-old forward has done throughout these playoffs and he can be expected to do it again on Thursday night.

Siakam contributed at least 24 points in three of the five games against Milwaukee in round one, scored 21 points in each of the last two games against Cleveland in round two, averaged 24.8 ppg against New York in the Eastern Conference Finals and has delivered 21, 20 and 28 points in the last three contests against Oklahoma City.