Thunder vs Pacers NBA Finals Game 3 picks, 6/11

The first two games in the NBA Finals followed a similar script, as Oklahoma City held big leads in both games and looked to be the much better team. However, because of the miraculous Pacers comeback in Game 1, this series is tied and Indiana has plenty of avenues for it to push this series to six or seven games, especially with things shifting back to Indianapolis. 

Will the Thunder seize control of the series on the road, or will the Pacers bounce back and take the lead at home? Let’s dive into our expert’s NBA Finals Game 3 picks and Thunder vs Pacers best bets for the action.

NBA Finals Game 3 best bets

Pick #1: Oklahoma City Thunder -5 over Indiana Pacers (-110)

Pick #2: Over 228.5 (-110)

Pick #3: Tyrese Haliburton Under 8.5 assists (-140)

Pick #1: Thunder -5 over Pacers (-110)

For our first bet of Game 3 of the NBA Finals, let’s lay the points with Oklahoma City on the road. Even though their form in road games this postseason hasn’t been all that impressive (0-7 against the spread), that shouldn’t discourage bettors from backing the Thunder in this one. For starters, the spread is now down to single digits, a stark contrast to where we saw it for the last game in this series. Furthermore, in the four meetings between these teams in the regular season and playoffs, the Thunder have won three times, with each of those victories coming by more than five points.

The fact of the matter is that Oklahoma City has thoroughly dominated this series to this point, building leads of 15+ points in each of the first two games. In fact, if Tyrese Haliburton, Aaron Nesmith and company didn’t make some improbable shots down the stretch of the series opener, we would likely be discussing the possibility of a sweep or a five-game series heading into this game.  

It’s fair to suggest that the Pacers will likely come out with a lot of energy given that the game will be played in their home arena, but weathering the storm is something the Thunder specialize in. Once Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets going against this middling Indiana defense, Oklahoma City is really hard to stop. All things considered, the favorite is the only way we can look on Wednesday. 

Pick #2: Over 228.5 (-110)

The Pacers have gotten themselves involved in plenty of high-scoring games this postseason, and oddsmakers are projecting that trend to continue in Game 3, seeing as the total has risen nearly three points since lines opened. With Indiana checking in at third in pace and leading all teams in true shooting percentage this postseason, it’s clear that the Pacers have been playing a style of basketball that lends itself well to higher-scoring contests.  

As for the visitors, the Thunder have actually played at the fastest pace of all teams in the field, which should mean plenty of possessions for Mark Daigneault’s team on Wednesday. Oklahoma City was able to relentlessly attack Indiana in the paint in Game 2, while also consistently generating good looks for its perimeter players. If that trend continues, this game should certainly clear the listed total. Ultimately, there should be a ton of possessions in this game, which should give both teams plenty of cracks at putting up points on Wednesday. With that in mind, let’s take the Over in Game 3.

Pick #3: Tyrese Haliburton Under 8.5 assists (-140)

For our final Thunder vs Pacers Game 3 pick, we're going to bet Tyrese Haliburton to go under on his assists line for the third consecutive game. 

Oklahoma City has a very unique defense, and the Thunder have been extremely effective at neutralizing Haliburton over the first two games of this series, particularly when it comes to his passing. In fact, there are plenty of possessions where the Indiana point guard doesn’t have the ball in his hands all that much, thanks to some excellent ball denial from the likes of Lu Dort or Cason Wallace.

With Haliburton struggling, Andrew Nembhard has picked up a lot of the slack in terms of point guard duties, and we wouldn’t expect that to change in this game. The Thunder are committed to their approach on defense, and it seems like Oklahoma City would much rather take its chances against Indiana’s role players in isolation situations, instead of Haliburton initiating the offense and getting a good look for a teammate. Ultimately, the Pacers’ point guard registered six assists in each of the first two games, and we expect a similar result in Game 3.