Thunder vs. Grizzlies Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (11/6)

Fact checked at 7:58 AM ET, Nov 6, 2026

Odds as of 7:30 AM ET, Nov 6, 2026

Oklahoma City visits Memphis at 8:00 PM ET in an NBA Cup West Group B game that also counts in the regular-season standings. Both teams are 6-2, and only one of them has most of its rotation. The Thunder have ruled out Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams, Thomas Sorber and Nikola Topic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been carrying them, with 43 points at Cleveland and 42 in the rematch two nights later. We expect Memphis's offense to run this game at FedExForum. That means the Grizzlies stay within a possession or win it, and the scoring climbs past the total, so we have Memphis with the points and the Over.

Memphis is missing Scotty Pippen Jr., who has sat out three straight games, and Isaiah Stewart, a bench scorer out with a knee bone bruise.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies Predictions

• Pick #1: Grizzlies +3.5 (-115)
• Pick #2: Over 225.5 (-108)

PICK #1: Grizzlies +3.5 (-115)

Memphis scores 120.5 points a game, fourth in the league, and a lot of it comes from three. The Grizzlies make 15.8 threes a game, second in the NBA, and their 40.0% from deep is the best mark in the league. That's a bad matchup for this version of Oklahoma City, which gives up 15.3 made threes a game, tied for third-most.

Oklahoma City's offense is the bigger problem. The Thunder average 110 points, tied for 21st, and with Williams and Holmgren out, most of the shot creation lands on Gilgeous-Alexander. When he can't do it all, they stall: 96 at Dallas and 98 at Houston in their two losses. Everyone on that injury list except Jaylin Williams has missed all of the last five games, and he sat out the second Cleveland win, so the recent results already show what this roster looks like.

Oklahoma City has 56% of the spread bets, but Memphis has 62% of the money on 43% of the tickets, so the bigger bets are on the home side. At -115 the Grizzlies need to cover 53.5% of the time. Their only losses came by one point in overtime to New Orleans, 135-134, and by four to Indiana, 107-103.

Gilgeous-Alexander is what can beat this. He has scored 40 or more twice this week, and Oklahoma City still allows just 108.8 points a game, eighth in the league. Both starting lineups are projected, not confirmed.

PICK #2: Over 225.5 (-108)

A game played at Memphis's speed should clear this number. The Grizzlies have scored 123, 136 and 134 in three of their four home games, and five of their eight games have gone over 225.5. In the past week alone they hung 136 on Sacramento and 134 on New Orleans.

The Thunder can still hold up their end. They beat Cleveland 124-116 two nights ago with Aday Mara starting at forward next to Isaiah Hartenstein. And Memphis has bench scoring left without Stewart: Jerami Grant has reached double figures in four of the last five games, and Cam Spencer and Quinten Post have each done it at least once.

The Over implies a 51.9% chance at -108. Oklahoma City's games have gone over this total only three times in eight, and its losses at Dallas and Houston finished well under. Stewart's absence also hurts, since he scored 24 and 14 off the bench in two of Memphis's recent games. We'll still take the league's best three-point shooting team against a defense that gives up this many threes.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.