Thunder vs Celtics picks, 3/12

There are nine games on tonight’s NBA slate, but one stands alone above the rest. The Oklahoma City Thunder are visiting the Boston Celtics in what could be a 2025 NBA Finals preview. Oklahoma City boasts the best record in the Western Conference at 53-12, while Boston is currently second in the East with a 47-18 mark. The Celtics have won five games in a row, while the Thunder saw a seven-game winning streak snapped with a loss to the Denver Nuggets on Monday. With tipoff set for 7:30 pm ET on TNT, it’s time to take a look at the odds and our Thunder vs Celtics best bets to make. 

Thunder vs Celtics Predictions 

Pick #1: Boston Celtics -2 over Oklahoma City Thunder (-112) 

Pick #2: Under 228.5 (-108) 

Pick #3: Chet Holmgren Over 15.5 points (-120) 

PICK #1: Celtics -2 over Thunder (-112)

The Thunder are underdogs for only the third time this season – and they are underdogs for good reason in this particular matchup. Not only is Boston in stellar form, but Oklahoma City lost Jalen Williams to a hip injury during Monday’s setback against Denver. Williams, who is averaging 21.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg and 5.3 apg, has been ruled out for tonight’s contest. Although OKC has plenty of depth to make up for the absence of any single player, Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the only guys on the roster averaging more than 14.6 ppg.

A showdown with the Celtics is not easy under any circumstances, but it is especially difficult without arguably your second-best player. The C’s are 11-2 in their last 13 overall and all 11 of those victories have come by at least six points, including nine by double-digits. They have played only one game since last Saturday and did not even put Jayson Tatum or Al Horford on the floor for Monday’s date with the lowly Utah Jazz, so this roster is extremely well-rested heading into Wednesday. Look for Boston to win and cover in front of what will surely be an enthused home crowd inside TD Garden.

PICK #2: Under 228.5 (-108) 

The only previous meeting between the Thunder and Celtics produced just 197 points. Points were at a premium even though OKC shot a stellar 16-for-38 from three-point range, so it’s hard to expect a scoring barrage in the rematch. Moreover, these are two of the top three scoring defenses in the entire association. Oklahoma City is ranked second at 107.1 ppg allowed, while Boston (108.2) is ranked third. The Celtics have limited 10 of their last 13 opponents to below that 108.2 season average.

It should also be noted that the Celtics play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA. They are 28th league-wide in possessions per game at 100.6 and over the past three games they are dead last at 96.9. Oklahoma City has played two games in the last three days and will likely be content to match Boston’s methodical pace. The result should be another low-scoring affair between two of the best teams in the league.

PICK #3: Chet Holmgren Over 15.5 points (-120)

Chet Holmgren is always a key part of the Oklahoma City equation, but he obviously becomes even more important to the cause with Williams sidelined. Holmgren has a history of physical problems, but since returning from his latest injury he is averaging 17 ppg in 25.6 minutes of play over his past four road games. Considering that his minutes should increase with Williams out, the former Gonzaga standout should be even more productive on Wednesday night. Horford will likely be assigned to Holmgren for much of this game, and that’s a matchup that favors the much younger player.