The MVP Race Is Heating Up And Kevin Durant's Odds Are Enticing

The NBA MVP race is heating up as Jayson Tatum continues to sit at the top of the heap and Zion Williamson’s hot run is interrupted by a health protocols timeout. Here are the latest odds courtesy of BetMGM.com.

Jayson Tatum is doing two things right in this race. First off, he’s playing some consistent and dominant basketball, leading his team in scoring (30.6) and rebounds (8.1) while also piling up assists, steals, blocks and 3-pointers. As a result of his production he’s a Top 5 fantasy player right now and has the Celtics just a ½ game behind the Bucks in the East. And that’s the second thing he’s doing correctly - playing for a winning team. While I’m not sure it’s written down in a rule book somewhere, the NBA MVP almost always comes from one of the best teams in the league. The unspoken rule is the award is for ‘the best player on the best team” and Tatum is hanging in the lead right now. 

However, the guy leading the team just above the Celtics and sitting in first-place in the East (the Bucks) is creeping up on Tatum and might overtake him soon. Giannis Antetokounmpo opened at 700 and is currently at 300, while Tatum opened at 1400 and currently sits at 250. Giannis has already won two MVP awards and could be heading for a third but it’s likely all going to come down to who wins the East, barring injuries. Putting money on either Tatum or Giannis should give you a solid chance of winning but the odds aren’t exactly home run hitters.

My guy, Luka Doncic, sits in third right now. After opening as the favorite at 500 he’s down to 350 but there’s a big problem. He’s surrounded by a bunch of marginal players and the Mavericks just aren’t that good. Luka, who somehow is already in the middle of his fifth season in the league, is having a magical year. He’s averaging 32.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, 8.7 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.8 3-pointers while shooting a career-best 49.4 percent from the floor. Free throws are his bugaboo, which also hurts his fantasy value, but the bigger problem is that the Mavs are 16-16 on the season and sitting as the No. 9 seed in the West. And the voters just aren’t going to give the award to a guy on a .500 team that might not even make the playoffs. Luka can continue to light up the league but if the Mavs don’t start winning, betting on him for MVP probably isn’t smart money. 

You don’t hear much about Joel Embiid in MVP chatter and that’s probably because the Sixers are just 18-12 and sitting in fifth place in the East. The numbers are there for Embiid (32.5 points, 9.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.6 blocks and 1.1 3-pointers) and he’s a fantasy monster, but unless the Sixers start winning and make a run at the Bucks and Celtics, he’s likely to be left out on awards night. 

Steph Curry is next on the list at 1300 but his injury and the fact the Warriors are just 15-18 means Curry is dead money right now. The Warriors are in 11th place in the West and falling.

Zion Williamson, who is out tonight due to health protocols, is next at 2000 after opening at 6600. The Pelicans went on a seven-game winning streak that propelled him into the mix, but have since lost four straight. But unlike Luka and Curry, Zion’s team is 18-12 and in third place in the West, just 1.0 games back of Denver and Memphis. If you’re looking to take a swing for the fences, Zion is worth a shot. Especially when he and Brandon Ingram (toe) are finally playing together again. It’s been nearly two months since that has happened and they could still easily end up winning the West.

Nikola Jokic has won the last two MVP awards and is sitting at a ridiculous 2200 after opening at 900. And guess what? Because of the insane tear he’s been on the Nuggets are sitting atop the Western Conference standings. First place in the West and 2200 = yes, please!

Ja Morant is in a similar situation for the Grizzlies, who are tied at the top with the Nuggets. And his odds are even tastier than Jokic’s at 3000. 

In summary, if you’re looking for a safe bet it looks like Tatum or Giannis are the way to go. If you’re looking to swing for the fences, Jokic and Morant seem like relatively safe ways to go despite their enticing odds. And if you’re looking for a true home run, Kevin Durant 3300 makes a ton of sense. After all, the Sixers are only 2.5 games back in the East and should continue to make a run at the top throughout the season. It’s hard to believe that Durant is getting the same odds as Anthony Davis, who’s not even playing for a sinking Lakers team. KD is averaging 30.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.7 3-pointers thus far.  

If I had a spare $100 laying around and could only put it on one player, in hopes of hitting it big, Durant is the way I’d go today.

Homerun Pick: Kevin Durant at 3300

Value Pick: Nikola Jokic at 2200

Conservative Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo 300

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