Texans vs. Steelers NFL Wild Card Picks

Texans vs. Steelers NFL Wild Card picks

Super Wild Card Weekend in the NFL wraps up with a Monday Night Football special between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers. Although Pittsburgh owns home-field advantage as champion of the moribund AFC North, Houston is favored by a field goal. In fact, four of the six road teams in the opening round of the playoffs are favored to advance.

With Monday’s contest set for 8:00 pm ET on ESPN, it’s time to break down the odds and discuss the best bets to make. 

Texans vs. Steelers MNF Predictions 

Pick #1: Houston Texans -3 over Pittsburgh Steelers (-102) 

Pick #2: Under 38.5 (-110) 

Pick #3: Woody Marks (HOU) over 53.5 rushing yards (-110) 

PICK #1: Texans -3 over Steelers (-102) 

It’s not hard to figure out why the road team is favored in this matchup. Houston had too much ground to make up in the AFC South after starting the season 3-5, thus settling for a wild card. However, head coach Demeco Ryans’ squad has won seven straight games and it comes into the playoffs with the best defense in the entire league. The Texans finished the regular season No. 1 in total defense, No. 2 in scoring, No. 6 against the pass, No. 3 in interceptions and No. 6 in sacks. How should we expect a 42-year-old quarterback to deal with that kind of opposition? Not well! 

Aaron Rodgers deserves at least some credit for getting Pittsburgh to the playoffs, but its division title was mostly due to Baltimore, Cincinnati and  Cleveland all being total disasters. And, let’s be honest, the Ravens still should have won it. The Steelers’ defense will have to play a lot better than it did in the Week 18 finale against Baltimore if it wants to advance on Monday, because you can be almost certain that Rodgers and company aren’t going to score much on Houston’s defense. 

PICK #2: Under 38.5 (-110) 

Houston held the Chargers to 12 points in the wild-card round 12 months ago, and a similar performance in this playoff opener would hardly be surprising. As if this iteration of the Texans’ defense needs any extra help, it will be predictably freezing on Monday night in Pittsburgh – not exactly conditions that are conducive to offensive football. Although the Steelers’ defense mostly underwhelmed last week, TJ Watt is back from a collapsed lung and Cameron Hayward played very well against the Ravens. The home side should be able to keep an unspectacular Houston offense mostly in check. After all, Derrick Henry ain’t walkin’ through that door on the Texans’ roster. Both of these QBs – Rodgers and CJ Stroud – are far better when they have time to throw the ball in comfortable pockets. That is unlikely to be the situation for either one in this particular matchup, so a low-scoring affair could be in the cards.

PICK #3: Woody Marks (HOU) over 53.5 rushing yards (-110) 

Marks rushed for at least 64 yards in four of his last six regular-season games. The only exceptions were a win over Arizona that was such a blowout (40-20) that Marks got only seven carries and the season finale against Indianapolis that turned into a meaningless game once it became apparent that Jacksonville was going to rout Tennessee and clinch the AFC South. In other words, Marks is almost always good for a fair amount of yards whenever he receives a normal workload in high-leverage situations. Don’t be surprised if he gets a ton of carries on Monday, as a likely game script calls for Houston to build a sizable lead – thus being able to keep the ball on the ground. The USC product is facing a Pittsburgh defense that allows 113.1 yards on 4.3 yards per carry.