Texans vs Patriots NFL Divisional Round Picks

The Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs continues with a heavyweight AFC matchup as the Houston Texans travel to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots, with a berth in the AFC Championship Game on the line. Both teams arrive riding defensive momentum, setting the stage for a physical, grind-it-out postseason battle.

Houston advanced with a 30–6 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round, though the contest was far closer than the final score suggests. The Texans defense gradually took control, choking off Pittsburgh’s offense and turning a tight game into a runaway late. New England, meanwhile, impressed in its Divisional Round opener, dispatching the Los Angeles Chargers 16–3 at home behind a dominant defensive performance that limited Justin Herbert to just 159 passing yards.

Kickoff is set for Sunday afternoon in Foxborough. With two of the league’s most disruptive defensive units squaring off and both teams being comfortable with winning ugly, this matchup profiles as a tense, low-scoring playoff showdown where every possession matters.

Let’s break down the matchup and highlight three betting angles worth considering.

Texans vs Patriots NFL Divisional Round picks

• PICK #1: Houston Texans +3 (-110) vs. New England Patriots
• PICK #2: Under 40.5 Total Points (-110)
• PICK #3: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

PICK #1: Texans +3 (-110)

Houston’s defense has been the defining unit of this postseason run. While the Texans’ Wild Card win over Pittsburgh ended as a blowout, it was their ability to suffocate the Steelers over four quarters that told the real story. This group excels at winning in the trenches, disguising coverages, and forcing quarterbacks to make uncomfortable decisions.

That strength will be tested against Drake Maye, who continues to impress but now faces his toughest defensive challenge yet. While New England’s defense just put on a clinic against the Chargers, Houston presents a different problem entirely, one that thrives on pressure, speed, and limiting explosive plays.

With both defenses likely controlling stretches of the game, grabbing a full field goal with the Texans feels like strong value. The Texans have not lost by more than a field goal since October. Houston doesn’t need to dominate to cash this ticket; they simply need to keep things tight, which aligns perfectly with how this defense plays.

PICK #2: Under 40.5 Total Points (-110)

This matchup screams Under. Both defenses are great, field position and patience, and neither coaching staff is eager to open things up unnecessarily in January. New England showed last week it’s comfortable winning with minimal offensive output, relying instead on defensive stops and mistake-free football.

Houston operates similarly. The Texans are happy to let their defense dictate tempo, shorten the game, and capitalize when opponents slip up. That approach naturally limits possessions and scoring chances.

With two elite defenses colliding and both offenses likely playing more conservatively, points should come at a premium. A final score in the range of 17–16 or 20–17 feels very much in play, making the Under a strong angle.

PICK #3: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

This is a brutal matchup for Patriots running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. Houston has been one of the league’s toughest run defenses all season, allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs. They reinforced that reputation last week by holding Pittsburgh’s backfield to just 63 yards on 18 carries.

The Texans excel at clogging interior lanes early and forcing offenses into long down-and-distance situations. That’s a tough environment for any running back to build volume, especially against a defense that rarely gives up chunk runs.

If Houston controls the line of scrimmage as expected, Stevenson could find himself bottled up early, forcing New England to lean more heavily on the passing game. He is also splitting work with TreVeyon Henderson and has seen 10 carries just once in his last five games. Given the matchup and likely game script, the under on Stevenson’s rushing total makes a lot of sense.