Texans vs. Chargers Prediction, NFL Week 9 Odds & Best Bets (11/8)

Fact checked at 8:15 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

Odds as of 7:12 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

The Chargers are 0-7, and their offense is why. They have scored 99 points, 14.1 a game and the fewest in the league, and they've gone 27 straight drives without an offensive touchdown. Justin Herbert leads the NFL with 10 interceptions and has thrown at least one in every game. Houston is only 2-5, but it comes in off its bye averaging 23.6 points a game, and it won the last meeting, 20-16, late last season. Kickoff is 4:05 PM ET in Inglewood.

The market has swung toward Houston since the Chargers' 24-9 loss to the Rams. The Texans were a small underdog when lines first went up and are now 5.5-point favorites, and the total has come down to 40.5. Our read is that the Chargers stay stuck, Houston builds a lead and hands the ball to Woody Marks, and the game finishes in the 30s, something like 24-13. Marks keeps the backfield with David Montgomery out again, and Houston is also without safety Reed Blankenship. The Chargers have ruled out defensive backs Deane Leonard and Kendall Williamson, and tight end David Njoku is doubtful to come off injured reserve. Neither quarterback is on an injury report, and C.J. Stroud and Herbert are expected to start.

Texans vs. Chargers Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 40.5 (-109)
• Pick #2: Dalton Schultz Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• Pick #3: Texans -5.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Under 40.5 (-109)

Six of the Chargers' seven games have stayed under 40.5. The lone over was a 30-23 loss in Seattle, and the other six finished with 40, 40, 40, 40, 28 and 33 total points. Los Angeles has scored 17 or fewer in three straight games, including 6 at Kansas City and 9 against the Rams. Now Herbert, already sacked 23 times, has to deal with Will Anderson Jr., who is tied for the league lead with 7.5 sacks.

Houston's games have run higher, with only 3 of 7 under this number, and that's the fair objection. Those four overs came against Buffalo, Dallas, Jacksonville and the Giants, and this Chargers offense isn't built to drag a game to 41. If Houston gets ahead, it has little reason to keep throwing, and the clock keeps moving. The Under at -109 implies a 52.2% chance.

There isn't much cushion. Four of the Chargers' unders landed on exactly 40, so one extra field goal flips the result. The split shows some doubt as well: 74% of the bets are on the Under but only 59% of the money, so the bigger tickets are on the Over. What would hurt most is Mike McDaniel's move to the coaches' box finally waking this offense up.

PICK #2: Dalton Schultz Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Schultz has cleared 36.5 twice in seven games. His logs, oldest to newest: 35, 140, 30, 9, 30, 33 and 45. The 140 came on 14 targets against Cincinnati, and outside that game his best is 45. He has 33 catches for 322 yards, a steady role built on short gains.

Los Angeles is a tough draw for that role. The Chargers allow 198.4 net passing yards a game, seventh-fewest in the league, so whatever has gone wrong for them, it hasn't been the coverage. Houston's target pool is getting crowded, too. Marvin Harrison Jr. has four catches for 40 yards in two games since his trade from Arizona, and Tank Dell returned against the Giants with one catch for 43 yards. DeMeco Ryans expects Dell's workload to grow as he gets his rhythm back. If Houston is protecting a lead, it will do it with Marks, not its tight end. At -115, the Under implies 53.5%.

One busted coverage could undo it. Schultz led Houston with 45 yards last time out, and the Chargers' secondary is thinner than usual, with Derwin James on injured reserve and Leonard and Williamson ruled out.

PICK #3: Texans -5.5 (-110)

Los Angeles has lost all seven of its games by six points or more: 26-14 to Arizona, 26-14 to Las Vegas, 24-16 at Buffalo, 30-23 at Seattle, 23-17 to Denver, 22-6 at Kansas City and 24-9 to the Rams. Every one of those margins covers this number. The Chargers have topped 17 points once, and their own bye only bought them nine points against the Rams.

Now Houston gets the extra week. The Texans are 2-1 on the road, with a 26-3 win at Tennessee, and their pass rush lines up well against a quarterback who keeps giving the ball away. The spread money isn't a public pile-on: 58% of the tickets and 63% of the money are on Houston. Laying -110 means paying for a 52.4% chance.

Houston's own habits are the problem. The Texans have won by six or more just once, four of their five losses came by six points or fewer, and they allow 24.3 points a game. The last meeting was a four-point win, which wouldn't cover here. This pick needs the Chargers' offense to stay as stuck as it has been all season.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.