Steelers vs. Saints Prediction, NFL Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/25)

Fact checked at 8:52 AM ET, Oct 25, 2026

Odds as of 7:36 AM ET, Oct 25, 2026

Pittsburgh (4-2) and New Orleans (2-4) meet at Stade de France in Saint-Denis, outside Paris, at 9:30 AM ET on NFL Network. The Saints are the designated home team, but there's no dome and no home crowd. It's an open-air game, and the kickoff-hour forecast calls for wind around 16 mph with gusts in the low 30s, dry, near 60 degrees.

This game comes down to the Saints' defense. New Orleans has allowed 29.67 points per game, tied for last in the league, and 138 rushing yards per game, 30th. Pittsburgh scores 22.83 and allows 21.33. The Saints did snap a three-game losing streak by beating the Giants 34-27 last week, while the Steelers needed overtime to win 26-19 at Tampa Bay.

The market has moved toward Pittsburgh and toward points. The Steelers opened as 1.5-point favorites and are laying 3 now, and the total has climbed from 41.5 to 43.5. We think Pittsburgh scores enough against that defense to win and drag the game over the total, and both picks cash in that game.

Steelers vs. Saints Predictions

• Pick #1: Steelers Moneyline (-161)
• Pick #2: Over 43.5 (-103)

PICK #1: Steelers Moneyline (-161)

Every team that has beaten New Orleans this season has scored at least 23. Atlanta put up 45, Las Vegas 35, and even in last week's win the Saints gave up 27. Pittsburgh has hit 24 or more in four of six games, and its defense ranks 12th at 21.33 points allowed.

The Saints are also shorthanded up front. Right guard Cesar Ruiz and defensive lineman Nathan Shepherd are both inactive. Pittsburgh gets Rico Dowdle (knee) and safety DeShon Elliott, both listed questionable, and Elliott makes his season debut after coming off injured reserve. The line has gone from 1.5 to 3, and -161 implies a 61.7% chance. A league-average offense against a defense this leaky is why we think the Steelers clear that.

This is the public side, though: 73% of moneyline bets and 73% of the money are on Pittsburgh, so you aren't getting a discount. Tyler Shough is active for New Orleans, and the Saints ran for 175 yards against the Giants, although Pittsburgh allows only 103 on the ground. Wind like this can also turn the game into a field-position fight where one turnover decides it. Cornerback Brandin Echols and receiver Ben Skowronek are inactive for Pittsburgh.

PICK #2: Over 43.5 (-103)

Saints games have been shootouts: 61 points against Detroit, 62 against Las Vegas, 69 against Atlanta and 61 against the Giants. Each team's games have cleared 43.5 in four of six, and Pittsburgh's have reached 45 or more four times, including 56 against Indianapolis and 57 against Cincinnati.

At -103, the Over implies a 50.7% chance. The reason to back it is the same reason to back the Steelers: Pittsburgh scoring in the 20s against a defense tied for the most points allowed, and a Saints offense averaging 25.33 adding its share. The total has risen two points since it opened, and Over bettors hold 56% of the tickets and 59% of the money, a small lean the same way.

Wind is what could sink it. Gusts in the low 30s can cut into the passing game and the kickers, and Pittsburgh has had its low-scoring games, a 20-3 loss to New England and a 20-13 win over Atlanta among them. If the Saints lean on the run and both offenses stall, this lands in the low 40s.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.